WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump is steering U.S. South Asia policy closer to Pakistan this year with a push for critical minerals and energy deals, a shift that is rattling India and testing Washington’s effort to avoid linking its India and Pakistan policies. The Trump pivot to Pakistan is being pitched as a supply-chain move to loosen China’s grip on minerals used in defense and advanced manufacturing, but New Delhi is warning privately that renewed U.S. engagement with Pakistan’s military could undercut the strategic bet India has made on Washington, Dec. 13, 2025.
Trump pivot to Pakistan and the critical-minerals chase
At the center of the courtship is Reko Diq, a giant copper-gold project in mineral-rich Balochistan that Islamabad is selling as a strategic alternative for a White House eager to lock down long-term supplies. The U.S. Export-Import Bank is preparing to deploy $100 billion to secure critical-mineral supply chains, and early deals include a $1.25 billion loan tied to Reko Diq, according to a Reuters report on EXIM’s planned push.
Pakistan is also dangling market access and investment concessions in an effort to turn minerals into a broader economic reset. In May, Commerce Minister Jam Kamal told Reuters there was “untapped potential for U.S. companies in Pakistan, from mining machinery to hydrocarbon ventures,” as Islamabad floated concessions for American firms during tariff and mining talks, according to Reuters.
India’s warning signs
India’s concern is not just optics — it is leverage. Trump’s lunch with Pakistan Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir prompted a private diplomatic protest from India, and officials complained Washington was sending the wrong signals by “wooing” Pakistan’s top general, according to a Reuters account of the protest.
That anxiety is now spilling into Washington’s own policy debate. In congressional testimony, Dhruva Jaishankar, executive director of the Observer Research Foundation America, said the U.S.-India partnership was at a “political standstill” driven largely by trade and tariffs and “renewed U.S. engagement with Pakistan’s military leadership.”
Supporters say the Trump pivot to Pakistan is a pragmatic bargain: secure raw materials, reward counterterrorism cooperation and keep pressure on rivals. Critics counter that the Trump pivot to Pakistan risks re-hyphenating the region — giving Pakistan’s security establishment fresh standing while India is being asked to absorb tariffs and tougher trade demands.
Backstory: the long arc behind today’s pivot
In 2018, Washington suspended at least $900 million in security assistance to Pakistan, a reminder of how quickly the relationship can swing.
In 2019, Trump’s Kashmir mediation talk touched off a storm in India, underscoring New Delhi’s deep aversion to third-party involvement.
In 2022, Pakistan and Barrick cut a deal to restart Reko Diq, setting the stage for today’s minerals diplomacy.
What happens next will determine whether the Trump pivot to Pakistan becomes a durable strategy or a tactical detour. For now, the Trump pivot to Pakistan is redrawing Washington’s South Asia playbook — and forcing India to ask how “de-hyphenated” the future really is.
