VILNIUS, Lithuania — The United States lifted Belarus potash sanctions Saturday and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko pardoned 123 prisoners in Belarus, including Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski and opposition leader Maria Kolesnikova, in a deal brokered by U.S. special envoy for Belarus John Coale. The trade-off is pitched as a way to pull Minsk a step away from Russia while freeing detainees, but critics warn the rollback of Belarus potash sanctions could bankroll repression, Dec. 13, 2025.
Within hours, buses carried most of the freed prisoners out of Belarus: nine went to Lithuania and 114 were transferred to Ukraine, Reuters reported. Belarusian human rights group Viasna put the number of political prisoners at 1,227 on the eve of the release, underscoring how far Belarus remains from a clean slate.
Coale signaled the White House wants to turn this into a repeatable formula. “We are on the right track — the momentum is there,” he said, calling the swap a “fair trade” and suggesting broader relief could follow if more prisoners are freed — a high-stakes gamble that would make Belarus potash sanctions the lever for the next round, not the last. Bialiatski, who spent years documenting abuses before becoming a prisoner himself, insisted the celebration can’t be the ending: “Thousands of people have been and continue to be imprisoned … so our struggle continues.”
Kolesnikova, a leading face of the 2020 protest movement, was shown in video embracing opposition figure Viktar Babaryka and saying, “It’s a great joy to see my first free sunset.” Bialiatski described the shock of freedom after years of isolation: “It feels like I jumped out of icy water into a normal, warm room, so I have to adapt,” he said, as Coale described the talks as “very productive” and said the relationship was moving from “baby steps to more confident steps,” The Associated Press reported.
Belarus potash sanctions: why the leverage is huge — and why the rollback is contentious
Potash is a cornerstone of global fertilizer supply and one of Belarus’ biggest sources of hard currency. Belarus previously accounted for about 20% of global potash fertilizer exports before sanctions and transit restrictions squeezed volumes and targeted state producer Belaruskali, according to reporting on the sanctions’ impact — which is why even partial relief on Belarus potash sanctions can ripple far beyond Minsk.
Dec. 2, 2021: Washington expanded penalties aimed at the potash sector, including designations tied to Belaruskali and Belarusian Potash Company. Treasury’s 2021 sanctions announcement
March 2, 2022: The European Union moved to fully ban potash trade from Belarus as part of sweeping sanctions over Minsk’s support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Reuters’ 2022 report on the EU’s potash ban
That history is why the Belarus potash sanctions reversal is drawing heat. Exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya urged caution, saying, “Let’s not be naive: Lukashenko hasn’t changed his policies,” and warning that sanctions relief must not “reinforc[e] Russia’s war machine.”
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty described the deal as Minsk’s latest bid to repair ties after years of isolation, while stressing that hundreds remain jailed and that the next test is whether releases continue — and whether Belarus potash sanctions become a bargaining chip again.
For now, the deal leaves the same hard question hanging over the diplomatic thaw: Can Belarus potash sanctions be traded for freedom without giving Lukashenko a financial lifeline — and if so, how many more people will have to wait for the next bus out?
