LONDON— Oil prices rallied in global trade Friday, with Brent crude for March delivery settling at $63.34 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate for February settling at $59.12 as investors priced in growing unrest in Iran and uncertainty around Venezuelan exports, according to settlement data published by Xinhua. The gains followed reports of widening protests and an internet blackout in Iran, alongside Washington’s push to reshape how Venezuelan crude is sold after U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Jan. 9, 2026.
Why oil prices moved higher
The late-week jump left oil prices on track for a third straight weekly gain, highlighting how quickly a risk premium can return when major producers face political shocks. Still, analysts cautioned that the broader market remains weighed down by expectations of ample supply in 2026, keeping oil prices vulnerable to sharp reversals if disruptions do not materialize.
Iran unrest adds a larger supply wildcard
In a Reuters Breakingviews commentary, analysts said Iran is a bigger swing factor for crude than Venezuela because it produces more than 3 million barrels of oil per day and exports more than 2 million, and because instability could threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Traders are watching for signs that unrest moves beyond street demonstrations into disruptions at fields, terminals or key transit routes.
Venezuela deal push keeps trade flows uncertain
On Venezuela, President Donald Trump has urged U.S. oil companies to expand involvement in the country and said Washington intends to steer 30 million to 50 million barrels of sanctioned Venezuelan crude toward U.S. refiners, Reuters reported. The administration has framed the effort as a way to lower consumer fuel costs, but some producers have warned that adding barrels into a well-supplied market could keep oil prices under pressure and squeeze domestic drilling budgets.
Separately, a Reuters report carried by a U.S. broadcaster said companies including Chevron and trading houses Vitol and Trafigura have been competing for government-backed deals to market Venezuelan crude held in storage, while U.S. officials have said Washington plans to control the country’s oil sales and revenues indefinitely. “The price surge has been primarily due to Trump’s claim to control Venezuela’s oil export, which could see a price increase from previously discounted sales,” said Tina Teng, market strategist at Moomoo ANZ.
Supply still matters, and OPEC is a key tell
Even as geopolitics lifted oil prices, the supply backdrop has not disappeared. A Reuters survey found OPEC pumped about 28.40 million barrels per day in December, down about 100,000 from November, as lower supply from Iran and Venezuela offset planned increases among some members. OPEC+ has slowed output increases as it tries to avoid a glut, a balancing act that can quickly become a key driver of oil prices when demand signals are mixed.
Context: oil prices have whipsawed on sanctions and protests
Venezuela’s influence on oil prices has long turned on sanctions policy. In October 2023, the Biden administration broadly eased restrictions on Venezuela’s oil sector after an election-related agreement between the government and opposition. By April 2024, Washington said it would not renew the license and moved to reimpose broad oil sanctions after concluding the Maduro government failed to meet election commitments.
Iran’s last major protest wave in 2022 also touched the energy sector. Reuters reported that protests after the death of Mahsa Amini persisted despite a crackdown and spread into the energy sector, including reports of strikes at major facilities.
For now, traders say oil prices will remain headline-driven, with the next move likely to depend on whether events in Tehran or policy shifts in Caracas translate into physical supply disruption or lasting changes in export flows.
