According to the latest CPI summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also held at 2.5% from a year earlier after rising 0.2% in February. That suggests underlying inflation is cooling only gradually, even as some of the stickiest categories begin to soften.
What the February CPI report showed
February’s details were mixed. Energy prices rose 0.6% for the month, and gasoline climbed 0.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis. Food prices also rose 0.4%, while shelter increased 0.2% and rent rose just 0.1%, the smallest monthly gain in that measure since January 2021. Medical care, apparel and airline fares also moved higher, while used cars and trucks, motor vehicle insurance and personal care declined.
Gasoline prices were still 5.6% lower than a year earlier, which helped keep the annual inflation rate from moving higher. But February’s monthly rebound in energy showed how fragile that relief remains when households are still dealing with firm food and services costs.
Why February CPI may understate March risk
The bigger concern now is what has happened since the February report was compiled. The AAA national gas average stood at $3.578 a gallon on March 11, while EIA weekly gasoline data showed the U.S. average at $3.502 for the week of March 9, up from $3.015 a week earlier. If that kind of increase holds, March inflation could feel hotter to consumers even if shelter continues to ease.
That is why Reuters’ latest analysis of the February inflation report treated the numbers as a relatively calm snapshot taken before the latest oil-price spike fully filtered through to drivers. In practical terms, February looked manageable; March may not.
How this February CPI reading fits the recent trend
The February number did not arrive out of nowhere. It followed a January CPI report that also showed annual inflation at 2.4% after gasoline fell 3.2% for the month, suggesting cheaper fuel had been helping hold the line. It also partly reversed the pattern seen in a March 2025 inflation report, when cheaper gasoline helped push headline CPI lower on the month.
That continuity matters because it shows how much inflation momentum can still turn on energy. Housing inflation is improving, and the latest rent reading was encouraging. But when gas prices rise fast enough, they can overwhelm quieter progress elsewhere and shape how households experience inflation in real time.
For now, the February CPI report offers only narrow relief: inflation did not worsen, but it did not improve either. Unless gas prices retreat soon, that balance could be much harder to maintain in the next report.
