NEW DELHI — India’s declining birth rate is fueling a growing political and social push for larger families, as allies of Prime Minister Narendra Modi warn the country could face long-term demographic and economic challenges despite remaining the world’s most populous nation, Monday, May 18, 2026.
The debate intensified after leaders in states aligned with Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party proposed new incentives for couples to have more children, arguing that India’s falling fertility rate could eventually create labor shortages, aging population pressures and slower economic growth.
According to a recent Reuters report, India’s total fertility rate — the average number of children born per woman — dropped to 2.0 during the government’s 2019-2021 assessment period, down sharply from 3.4 in 1992-1993. A fertility rate of 2.1 is generally considered the replacement level needed to maintain a stable population.
India fertility rate decline triggers policy shift
Leaders in Andhra Pradesh and Sikkim have emerged at the forefront of the pronatalist push. Andhra Pradesh officials recently proposed cash incentives for larger families, including payments for third and fourth children. State leaders say the move reflects concerns about an aging society and shrinking workforce in the coming decades.
Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu said India’s demographic outlook has changed dramatically from the era when aggressive family-planning campaigns dominated public policy.
“In the past, we worked extensively on family planning. Now, given the changed circumstances, we are calling for children to be seen as wealth,” Naidu said, according to Reuters.
The debate mirrors trends seen across Asia, where countries including China, Japan and South Korea shifted from population-control policies to encouraging childbirth after experiencing falling fertility and aging populations.
A separate Times of India report last month warned Andhra Pradesh’s fertility rate had fallen to 1.50, significantly below replacement level. Officials cautioned that the state could face workforce shortages and rising elderly-care burdens if birth rates continue to decline.
RSS leaders raise alarms over India fertility rate
The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, or RSS, the influential Hindu nationalist organization tied ideologically to Modi’s ruling BJP, has increasingly framed declining fertility as a national concern.
RSS General Secretary Dattatreya Hosabale recently warned that demographic imbalances could create future social tensions as birth rates decline across India.
The concern is not new. In 2025, RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat publicly encouraged Indian families to have three children, arguing the country needed a “controlled, yet sufficient” population to protect long-term national interests, according to an earlier Reuters article.
Government advisers and economists have also voiced concerns about India following the demographic trajectory of East Asian economies. A 2025 Mint analysis quoted Economic Advisory Council member Sanjeev Sanyal warning that India should abandon older population-control thinking as fertility rates decline nationwide.
India population still expected to grow for decades
Despite concerns over declining births, India’s overall population is still projected to increase for several more decades because of demographic momentum and the country’s relatively young population.
The United Nations estimates India’s population could peak near 1.7 billion before stabilizing later this century. Current estimates place India’s population at roughly 1.47 billion people, according to Worldometer data based on U.N. projections.
Recent reports suggest India’s fertility decline has accelerated faster than many policymakers expected. A 2025 Economic Times report highlighted United Nations Population Fund findings showing India’s fertility rate had already slipped below replacement level nationally.
Demographers say the trend is being driven by rising education levels among women, increased urbanization, broader contraceptive use and growing economic pressures on younger families.
At the same time, India continues to grapple with unemployment challenges, especially among younger adults. Government figures cited by Reuters show unemployment among Indians aged 15 to 29 remained significantly higher than the national average in 2025.
While supporters of larger-family policies argue India must prepare for future demographic shifts now, critics warn that encouraging higher birth rates in a country already facing resource, infrastructure and employment pressures could create new long-term strains.
