DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Iran’s leadership is increasingly worried that a US strike on Iran could drive an already enraged public back into the streets as Washington and Tehran head toward nuclear talks in Istanbul, Turkey, expected Friday. Officials and analysts say the fear is rooted in the deep anger left by a bloody January crackdown that witnesses and rights groups say killed thousands, eroding the public’s reluctance to confront security forces, Feb. 3, 2026.
In a Reuters report citing six current and former officials, people briefed on internal discussions said senior figures warned Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that “fear is no longer a deterrent” for many Iranians. One official, speaking anonymously due to the sensitivity of the matter, said the leadership worries that outside pressure combined with renewed demonstrations could push the system toward collapse.
How a US strike on Iran could reshape Tehran’s internal calculus
Officials described a growing concern that a US strike on Iran — even a limited one — could be interpreted at home not as a rallying point, but as a signal of vulnerability at the top. Reuters reported that Iran’s streets stayed quiet after Israeli and U.S. attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities last June, but some insiders believe the mood has shifted after the January bloodshed.
Former Prime Minister Mirhossein Mousavi, an opposition figure under house arrest since 2011, issued a stark warning in a public statement carried by Iranian media, saying, “Enough is enough. The game is over.” The Reuters report also quoted a former senior official describing the public as “extremely angry,” adding that “the wall of fear has collapsed.”
Tehran has publicly taken a defiant posture, while also blaming the January violence on “armed terrorists” linked to Israel and the United States, according to Reuters. Iran’s Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to Reuters’ request for comment on the account of internal meetings.
Crucial talks, mounting military pressure
The latest warnings are landing as both sides signal openness to diplomacy. Reuters reported scheduled nuclear talks in Istanbul on Friday between U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, as officials try to revive negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program and reduce the risk of a wider conflict.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has also indicated he is prepared to explore diplomacy, saying he instructed his foreign minister to pursue “fair and equitable negotiations” if talks can proceed without threats or unreasonable demands, according to an Associated Press account of his remarks.
At the same time, Washington has expanded its military options in the region. Reuters reported the arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln and supporting warships in the Middle East, a move U.S. officials said broadened the president’s ability to defend U.S. forces — or potentially take military action.
Whether diplomacy lowers the odds of a US strike on Iran may hinge on how negotiators handle the most entrenched disputes, including limits on enrichment, Iran’s missile program and its support for regional proxies. For Tehran, officials told Reuters, the greater immediate danger may be domestic: a population that has repeatedly shown it can mobilize quickly, and a security state that has repeatedly shown it will meet dissent with force.
That cycle has precedent. Reuters’ 2019 Special Report on the crackdown after fuel-price protests described an order to “do whatever it takes,” and reported a death toll of about 1,500 cited by Iranian interior ministry officials, a figure Iranian authorities disputed. In 2022, demonstrations after Mahsa Amini died in custody again tested the state’s capacity to contain street anger.
The nuclear standoff, too, has deep roots: Reuters reported that Trump announced a U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal in 2018, a decision that helped set the stage for years of sanctions pressure and accelerating nuclear tensions. Now, with talks set to resume and military assets moving into place, Iranian officials and analysts say the most combustible variable may not be centrifuges — but the street.
