LONDON — Shares in Greggs fell as much as 6% Monday after Jefferies downgraded the UK bakery chain’s stock to “hold” from “buy,” warning that rising use of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs could sap demand from its most frequent customers. The broker said the appetite-suppressing medicines risk slowing sales and profit growth by nudging high-spending shoppers toward smaller purchases, Feb. 9, 2026.
What Jefferies sees for Greggs
Jefferies cut its price target for Greggs to 1,610 pence, calling wider use of glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) treatments a structural risk for a business built on “food on the go” staples such as sausage rolls and sweet treats, according to a Reuters report on the downgrade. “We are increasingly of the view that the rapid uptake of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs is impacting Greggs,” Jefferies analyst Andrew Wade wrote, arguing that softer consumer spending and bad weather do not explain the depth of the slowdown.
The bank’s concern is less about the average shopper and more about the customers who visit most often — the people likely to buy breakfast and lunch multiple times a week. Jefferies said that even if the typical GLP-1 user only partially overlaps with Greggs’ broader base, the overlap could be concentrated among higher-body-mass and higher-frequency customers who matter most to sales. Shares were last down about 4% after the early drop, making Greggs one of the biggest fallers on the FTSE mid-cap index.
How Greggs is responding to a changing appetite
Greggs has already been tweaking its offer as shoppers become more nutrition-conscious. In its Q4 trading update, the company said it reintroduced an “improved Festive Flatbread as a healthier choice” and added protein shakes to its drinks range. CEO Roisin Currie said Greggs “outperformed the wider market” in 2025 and entered 2026 with “a strong pipeline of new opportunities,” while warning that subdued consumer confidence remained a headwind.
Financially, Greggs said fourth-quarter total sales rose 7.4% and company-managed shop like-for-like sales increased 2.9%. Full-year 2025 sales climbed 6.8% to £2.151 billion, with 2,739 shops trading at year-end; Greggs said it expects to open around 120 net new shops in 2026 and report preliminary results March 3.
GLP-1 and Greggs: a risk investors have been tracking for years
Concerns about GLP-1 “jabs” and restaurant demand didn’t start with Greggs. In 2023, Reuters reported that weight-loss drug worries were already surfacing in U.S. restaurant traffic and pushing companies to consider changes such as smaller portions and different ingredients (Reuters, Oct. 26, 2023). By mid-2024, global food makers were publicly exploring GLP-1-friendly product lines and marketing strategies as the medicines spread (Reuters, June 20, 2024).
For Greggs, the timing is awkward: the chain has been pushing growth through store openings, longer hours and menu expansion. Last summer, Currie said she did “not believe we’ve reached peak Greggs,” even as sales growth slowed during a heatwave (Reuters, July 29, 2025).
Adoption estimates vary, but the direction is clear. UCL researchers estimated 1.6 million adults in England, Wales and Scotland used drugs such as Wegovy and Mounjaro between early 2024 and early 2025 (UCL analysis). In England, semaglutide (Wegovy) is prescribed through specialist weight management services, according to NHS England — but private prescriptions and broader uptake could still reshape “treat” categories that have long powered Greggs’ footfall.
