NEW YORK — Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its year-end 2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 an ounce in a research note Thursday. The bank cited steady buying from private investors and emerging-market central banks that has helped keep bullion near record levels, Jan. 22, 2026.
The revised target, first reported by Reuters, increases Goldman’s prior call of $4,900 an ounce.
Spot gold climbed to about $4,888 per ounce Wednesday and is up more than 11% so far in 2026 after a 64% jump in 2025, the report said.
Gold price forecast: what’s behind Goldman’s $5,400 call
Goldman’s analysts said the bank assumes “private sector diversification buyers” who built positions as macro and policy hedges will largely keep them through 2026 rather than sell into strength. In a note cited by Bloomberg, the team said that stickier holdings effectively raise the starting point for its year-end 2026 gold price forecast.
The bank also expects Western gold exchange-traded funds to attract fresh inflows if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. Business Insider reported Goldman’s view that central banks could buy an average of about 60 metric tons of gold a month in 2026 as reserve managers keep diversifying.
Recent official-sector data suggest the trend is holding. The World Gold Council’s latest central-bank gold statistics said net purchases totaled 45 metric tons in November, with year-to-date reported buying at 297 tons through the end of the month.
How this gold price forecast fits a longer arc
Goldman’s latest gold price forecast follows earlier upward revisions as demand broadened. In December, the bank described a base case of $4,900 by December 2026 and still flagged upside risk if private-sector diversification widened, according to a Reuters commodities outlook story.
In September, Goldman Sachs Research projected gold rising to $4,000 by mid-2026, citing structural central-bank demand and potential Fed easing, in an earlier Goldman analysis.
World Gold Council data also show central banks have been consistent buyers. The group said official-sector buying exceeded 1,000 metric tons for a third straight year in 2024, including net additions of 1,045 tons, in its full-year 2024 central-bank demand breakdown.
And in July 2020, Goldman raised its 12-month gold price forecast to $2,300 per ounce amid falling real yields, Reuters reported at the time.
What could derail the gold price forecast
Goldman also flagged downside risk: If markets see a sharp reduction in long-term monetary-policy risk, investors could unwind hedges and pressure prices. That is why any gold price forecast ultimately depends on whether today’s buyers stay in — and whether new buyers replace them.
For now, Goldman’s $5,400 target underscores how quickly the gold narrative has shifted, with reserve strategy and portfolio hedging playing a bigger role alongside traditional demand.
