JERUSALEM — Hamas has tightened its control over the parts of the Gaza Strip it still governs, even as a U.S.-brokered cease-fire with Israel stalls in talks over disarmament and the territory’s future rule. The deepening Hamas Gaza grip, diplomats warn, risks turning President Donald Trump’s 20-point peace plan into a frozen conflict that neither disarms the group nor rebuilds the shattered enclave, Dec. 9, 2025.
Hamas Gaza grip tests fragile cease-fire.
Under the current map, Israeli forces still hold more than half of Gaza along the so-called “yellow line,” while Hamas and allied factions have regrouped in dense urban pockets to the west and south. Israel’s military chief has begun describing that line as a “new border,” suggesting positions meant to be temporary are hardening into a long-term partition of the strip. The Guardian reported that fortifications and outposts now stretch beyond what was written into the cease-fire text, alarming foreign diplomats who backed the deal as a step toward demilitarizing Hamas’s Gaza strongholds.
The Trump plan’s second phase hinges on verifiable disarmament: only after Hamas gives up its rockets and long-range weapons would the Israel Defense Forces withdraw, and large-scale reconstruction money begin to flow. A recent RAND commentary notes that without precise sequencing and enforcement, both sides will be tempted to pocket gains and stall, leaving Hamas in Gaza areas armed and Israeli troops dug in along the line of contact.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is due to meet Trump later this month to discuss how — or whether — to move into that second phase, after Hamas released its last living hostages and Israel freed hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in the first stage of the deal. Reuters says the agenda includes timelines for Israeli withdrawal, the shape of an international force, and whether any Hamas role in governance can be tolerated. Qatar’s prime minister has called the cease-fire “incomplete” and “at a critical moment,” warning that prolonged ambiguity over Hamas’ Gaza zones could cause the truce to unravel. The Washington Post reported that negotiators in Cairo and Doha have yet to agree on even basic rules for the next stage.
International force and disarmament dispute
At the heart of the impasse is an armed International Stabilization Force, or ISF, mandated by a recent UN resolution to separate Israeli troops from Hamas and oversee security in postwar Gaza. Diplomats involved in the talks told The Washington Post that governments are wary of sending soldiers into Hamas Gaza neighborhoods if the mandate includes forcibly seizing weapons, calling it “a mission nobody wants.”
Regional powers are split over sequencing. Israel insists Hamas must disarm first, arguing that anything less leaves Israeli towns within range of rockets and tunnels. Hamas leaders, citing a “right to resistance,” reject any forced disarmament and say weapons could be addressed only in the context of a recognized Palestinian state. Turkey and Qatar back a phased approach in which the ISF first polices the cease-fire line and protects aid convoys before touching Hamas Gaza arsenals, according to recent statements by their foreign ministers.
For now, the result is drift. An International Crisis Group briefing warned that the cease-fire is “vital but only a start.” That failure to clarify who disarms whom — and under whose authority — could turn Hamas Gaza districts into a permanent gray zone of militias, local committees, and rival security services. The report argues that without a credible plan to fold armed groups into a reformed Palestinian security structure, outside forces may be stuck “managing” rather than resolving the conflict.
Old debates over Gaza demilitarization return
The struggle over Hamas’s Gaza disarmament is not new. During the 2014 war, Israeli leaders and Western diplomats floated a “demilitarized Gaza” formula that tied reconstruction funds to strict controls on weapons and tunnel materials. An op-ed in the Los Angeles Times that summer argued that disarmament was the key to any durable truce. At the same time, a Washington Institute study laid out detailed steps to prevent Hamas and other factions from rebuilding their rocket stockpiles.
After that war, Egypt brokered a cease-fire that briefly raised hopes of a more open Gaza under Palestinian Authority control, but the demilitarization plank never moved beyond paper. A 2017 reconciliation deal between Fatah and Hamas, reported at the time by the Times of Israel, envisioned the PA taking over Gaza’s crossings and ministries yet sidestepped who would command the security forces and whether Hamas’s armed wing would give up its guns. Analysts note that today’s arguments around Hamas Gaza weapons, international monitors, and PA technocrats echo those earlier, unresolved debates.
Civilians in Hamas’ Gaza zones face open-ended limbo.
On the ground, the politics translate into a stark daily reality. Fifteen months of war have left entire neighborhoods in ruins, with families in Hamas Gaza districts picking through rubble for belongings and improvising shelters beside the remains of their homes. A Reuters photo series this year showed long streets of collapsed concrete and crowds of displaced residents trying to return north under a tenuous cease-fire. At the same time, reconstruction plans so far focus mainly on Israeli-held areas along the yellow line.
Humanitarian agencies warn that if negotiations over Hamas Gaza disarmament and Israeli withdrawal drag into 2026, Gaza could remain stuck in what one analyst calls “unstable limbo” — neither entirely at war nor truly at peace. For residents still living under Hamas rule, that means curfews, taxation checkpoints, and the constant risk that a local clash could spiral into renewed fighting. For Israel, it means keeping tens of thousands of soldiers on high alert a short drive from its border. And for the foreign governments that sold the cease-fire as a path to a safer, demilitarized Gaza, it is a test of whether they can turn yet another fragile truce into something more than a pause before the next round.
