DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — The United Arab Emirates said Wednesday it would withdraw its remaining forces from Yemen after a Saudi-led coalition strike hit the southern port of Mukalla and Yemen’s Saudi-backed leadership demanded an Emirati pullout. The move pushed the Saudi-UAE rift into open confrontation, complicating efforts to prevent renewed fighting in the south and testing whether Gulf coordination on energy and commerce can stay insulated from a widening political split, Dec. 31, 2025.
Abu Dhabi’s defense ministry said it had ended the mission of its remaining counterterrorism units after a “comprehensive assessment,” according to Reuters. The announcement marked the UAE’s final step out of Yemen after a broader drawdown that began in 2019.
Saudi-UAE rift widens after Mukalla strike
Saudi officials said the Mukalla strike targeted what they described as “foreign military support” for the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a UAE-backed separatist force that has surged across parts of southern Yemen in recent weeks. Coalition spokesman Maj. Gen. Turki al-Maliki said two ships carried more than 80 vehicles and containers of weapons and ammunition, while the UAE rejected the allegation and said the shipment was destined for Emirati forces rather than any Yemeni faction, Al Jazeera reported.
Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council, chaired by Rashad al-Alimi, canceled a defense pact with the UAE and imposed emergency measures that included a no-fly zone and a 72-hour land and sea blockade at ports and crossings, according to Al Jazeera. Saudi Arabia said its national security was a “red line” and urged Abu Dhabi to halt any military or financial support to Yemeni factions outside coordination with the internationally recognized government.
Saudi-UAE rift puts Yemen’s fragile calm at risk
The Saudi-UAE rift is colliding with an already fragmented battlefield. The STC’s offensive has pushed separatist forces deeper into strategic areas in the south and closer to Yemen’s border with Saudi Arabia, exposing years of distrust and competition between the two Gulf heavyweights and raising concerns that disagreements could complicate consensus-building in other arenas, including oil policy, a Reuters analysis said.
The United Nations has warned that escalations risk rekindling wider conflict after periods of relative lull. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged “maximum restraint” following the separatist advance and said 19.5 million Yemenis need humanitarian assistance, according to Reuters.
Beyond the front lines, Yemen’s war remains shaped by competing regional priorities and shifting alliances. The Council on Foreign Relations’ Yemen conflict tracker describes a country still fractured by rival armed groups even as broader fighting has periodically eased and diplomatic efforts have ebbed and flowed.
Oil and influence: the Saudi-UAE rift moves from the battlefield to OPEC+
For investors and diplomats, the higher-stakes question is whether the Saudi-UAE rift stays contained to Yemen. Saudi Arabia and the UAE sit at the center of OPEC+, and previous disputes over quotas and baselines have shown how quickly political friction can spill into energy diplomacy. Even if both capitals try to compartmentalize, a hardening split over Yemen, regional influence and security red lines may narrow the space for compromise when production decisions and market management come up for review.
Earlier warning signs
This rupture did not begin with Mukalla. The UAE started scaling back its Yemen footprint years ago, including handing control of Aden back to Saudi Arabia in 2019, Reuters reported at the time.
Economic and energy policy frictions also surfaced publicly in 2021, when an OPEC+ meeting was called off after a rare Saudi-UAE clash over how production cuts should be calculated, Reuters reported.
And Saudi Arabia’s “Project HQ” push underscored the competition for investment and commercial dominance in the Gulf, pressing foreign firms to relocate regional headquarters to the kingdom by 2024 or risk losing government contracts, Al Jazeera reported.
For now, the UAE’s withdrawal reduces the immediate risk of a direct clash between Gulf partners on Yemeni soil. But with the STC refusing to relinquish new positions and Saudi Arabia signaling border security is nonnegotiable, the Saudi-UAE rift is likely to remain a defining variable in Yemen’s next phase — and in the region’s broader balance of power.
