BANGKOK — Myanmar’s military ruler Min Aung Hlaing is trying to turn a tightly managed, phased election into a civilian veneer for continued junta control as the country remains fractured by war and political repression. The strategy leans on deals with elites and armed actors, rewards for loyalists and a security apparatus that punishes dissent, leaving critics to dismiss the vote as illegitimate, Jan. 13, 2026.
The election — Myanmar’s first since the 2021 coup — is being conducted in stages, with voting already held in late December and again Sunday, and a final round scheduled for Jan. 25. The military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party has dominated early results, while major opposition forces are absent after party bans and arrests, according to reporting and election updates from the Union Election Commission and observers.
Min Aung Hlaing and the mechanics of a managed vote
Min Aung Hlaing is not listed as a candidate, but Reuters reported he has framed the balloting as a path to “hand over” state responsibilities to a new government — a transition skeptics view as cosmetic. Analysts quoted by Reuters described the election as an “elite management strategy” designed to diffuse blame for battlefield setbacks while keeping the armed forces’ core power intact.
Read the Reuters deep dive on the junta’s survival tactics here.
On the ground, the vote is unfolding amid fighting and fear. The Associated Press reported low enthusiasm in major cities compared with past elections, and described attacks and security incidents around some polling sites as armed opponents reject the process.
AP’s account of the second phase of voting is available here.
Pacts and patronage that protect Min Aung Hlaing
Reuters reported that Min Aung Hlaing has relied on a familiar authoritarian toolkit: elevating loyal generals into lucrative roles tied to military-linked businesses while sidelining or detaining potential rivals. The same reporting said he has leaned on seasoned insiders — including Foreign Minister Than Swe — to widen diplomatic room, with China’s backing singled out as particularly important.
That external support has often been paired with selective de-escalation. China’s Foreign Ministry said it brokered a ceasefire between Myanmar’s military and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army in January 2025, underscoring Beijing’s priority of border stability as the election timetable approached.
Reuters’ report on the China-brokered ceasefire is here.
Fear and exclusion: the dispute over legitimacy
International criticism has sharpened as balloting proceeds without meaningful competition. In a U.N. statement after the first round, Special Rapporteur Tom Andrews urged governments to reject what he called a “sham election,” arguing coercion and exclusion are baked into the process.
The U.N. human rights office statement is posted here.
Policy analysts have also warned that formal voting does not equal stability. A Council on Foreign Relations analysis described the election as deeply consequential even if it fails basic democratic tests, because the junta can use the outcome to claim a mandate, reshape institutions and pressure foreign governments to re-engage.
That CFR analysis is available here.
The dispute is rooted in a long-running dismantling of the pre-coup political order. Reuters’ February 2021 explainer on the coup detailed how Min Aung Hlaing seized power after alleging election fraud — claims election monitors disputed — and placed top civilian leaders under detention.
That 2021 Reuters explainer is here.
In March 2023, Reuters reported the junta dissolved Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy for failing to register under restrictive party rules, wiping out the biggest electoral rival ahead of any promised vote. And after repeatedly pledging elections, the military formally postponed its August 2023 deadline, Al Jazeera reported, citing continuing violence.
Reuters’ report on dissolving the NLD is here, and Al Jazeera’s report on postponing the 2023 vote is here.
For Min Aung Hlaing, the near-term goal is simple: replace direct military rule with a parliament and government that do not threaten the armed forces’ grip. Whether that reshuffle brings calm is far less certain, with armed resistance entrenched and the election’s legitimacy rejected by key opponents and international rights monitors.
