BUCHAREST, Romania — Romania’s hard-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) opened 2026 with 40.9% support in the latest AUR poll from INSCOP Research, outpacing every other party in a parliamentary voting-intention survey released Wednesday. The AUR poll suggests the opposition party is closing in on the combined support of Romania’s biggest governing parties, intensifying pressure on a pro-European coalition with the next general election not due until 2028, Jan. 21, 2026.
The results come from INSCOP’s monthly barometer for the news platform Informat.ro, conducted Jan. 12-15 through telephone interviews with 1,100 adults. The figures are reported among respondents who named a party preference (72% of the sample), with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, as outlined in the published Barometrul Informat.ro–INSCOP Research methodology and party breakdown.
AUR poll breakdown: AUR at 40.9% as PSD, PNL and USR follow
In the January AUR poll, the Social Democratic Party (PSD) ranked second with 18.2%, followed by the National Liberal Party (PNL) at 13.5% and the Save Romania Union (USR) at 11.7%. The Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) polled at 4.9%, just under the 5% threshold required for most parties to enter parliament.
AUR: 40.9%
PSD: 18.2%
PNL: 13.5%
USR: 11.7%
UDMR: 4.9%
Other options included SENS (3.4%), SOS Romania (2.8%), POT (1.5%), other parties (1.1%) and independents (2%). In a separate question on likelihood of voting, 58.4% selected the top “10” score on a 1-to-10 scale for certainty they would vote, while 22.4% chose “1,” Agerpres reported.
Why the AUR poll lead matters for Romania’s governing math
Beyond the headline figure, the AUR poll underscores how fragmented the rest of the field remains. AUR’s 40.9% sits within a few points of the combined PSD–PNL–USR total (43.4%), while the governing bloc rises to 48.3% once UDMR is included — a split INSCOP director Remus Stefureac has described as a “rigid political status quo.”
AUR, the second-largest party in parliament, has built its appeal around nationalist messaging and criticism of parts of the EU agenda, and it has opposed extending military aid to neighboring Ukraine. Romania’s current government brings together PSD, Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan’s PNL, USR and UDMR, according to Reuters’ report on the INSCOP results.
Romanian outlet HotNews noted the AUR poll marks a rebound from the barometer’s late-2025 dip and highlighted that UDMR has historically benefited from strong turnout among ethnic Hungarian voters even when polling near the threshold, as detailed in its coverage of the survey.
Older snapshots show continuity over time
The January AUR poll also fits a broader trend of high support that has largely held through the past year. In the November 2025 edition of the same barometer, AUR slipped below 40% to 38% after months hovering around or above that mark, according to the November 2025 INSCOP barometer.
In the May 2025 presidential election rerun, AUR leader George Simion won the first round with about 41% before losing in the runoff, Reuters reported then. And Romania’s December 2024 parliamentary vote highlighted the growing weight of hard-right parties in national politics, according to Reuters’ reporting from election night.
Polling is not a forecast, and party support can shift quickly as economic decisions, coalition tensions and campaign issues evolve. Still, the latest AUR poll shows AUR entering 2026 with a commanding lead — and with enough support to shape Romania’s political debate well before voters return to the polls.
