TAIPEI, Taiwan — Device makers and retailers are warning that memory chip prices are rising fast enough to push up the cost of smartphones and personal computers in 2026 as AI data centers lock up supply. Analysts say the squeeze is being amplified because memory manufacturers are prioritizing server parts — including high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, used alongside AI accelerators — over components typically destined for consumer gadgets, Jan. 22, 2026.
The problem is playing out far from store shelves, in contract negotiations and factory allocation decisions that can leave laptop and phone brands paying more, accepting longer lead times or dialing back component upgrades.
Why memory chip prices are surging
TrendForce expects broad increases in early 2026 as suppliers steer advanced capacity toward server DRAM and HBM. The firm forecasts conventional DRAM contract prices will rise about 55% to 60% from the previous quarter in the first quarter, while NAND flash contract prices will increase 33% to 38%. TrendForce also projects server DRAM prices will jump by more than 60%, according to TrendForce’s Jan. 5 memory pricing outlook.
At the same time, the hardware footprint behind generative AI is still expanding. TrendForce says global AI server shipments are expected to surge by more than 28% year over year in 2026, driven largely by North American cloud providers scaling both training and inference capacity, according to its Jan. 20 AI server shipments forecast.
IDC argues the tightness looks more structural than cyclical because limited cleanroom space is being redirected toward memory for AI data centers rather than the DRAM and NAND used in phones and PCs. IDC expects 2026 DRAM and NAND supply growth of 16% and 17% year over year, respectively, below historical norms, according to an IDC market analysis.
What higher memory chip prices mean for smartphones and PCs
When memory chip prices climb, device brands usually have three choices: absorb the hit, trim RAM and storage, or raise retail prices. A Reuters report on the consumer electronics outlook said companies including HP, Dell and Raspberry Pi have already increased sticker prices, while IDC and Counterpoint now expect global smartphone shipments to fall at least 2% in 2026 and the PC market to shrink at least 4.9%.
IDC also notes memory can account for about 15% to 20% of the bill of materials for a mid-range smartphone, a cost share that makes prolonged increases difficult to hide. Analysts expect “spec holding” — fewer jumps in base RAM and storage — as mainstream models try to stay affordable.
Supply relief is coming, but not quickly
Capacity additions take years, not quarters. Micron said it signed a letter of intent to acquire Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp.’s P5 fabrication site in Tongluo, Taiwan, for $1.8 billion in cash, adding 300,000 square feet of 300-millimeter cleanroom space, according to Micron’s Jan. 17 statement on the Tongluo site. Micron said the transaction is expected to close by calendar Q2 2026 and contribute meaningful DRAM wafer output beginning in the second half of 2027.
Memory chip prices have spiked before
Earlier cycles show how quickly memory markets can turn — and how often servers are part of the story. In 2017, a Reuters report describing a “memory chip supercycle” pointed to strong demand from smartphones and servers. In early 2018, another Reuters story on a memory price pullback highlighted concerns that additional supply could cool the boom. And in 2021, Reuters again tied corporate results to rising DRAM and NAND pricing in a look-ahead to Samsung earnings.
For 2026, the open question is whether the AI build-out keeps memory chip prices elevated long enough to reset what buyers consider a “normal” price for phones and PCs — or whether fresh supply brings the cycle back down.
