AMSTERDAM, Netherlands — ASML shares climbed Tuesday as chipmakers signaled a fresh round of capital spending increases for 2026. Investors are betting demand for Nvidia-linked AI hardware will keep pulling forward orders for ASML’s extreme ultraviolet lithography tools, the machines that “print” the smallest circuitry on advanced chips, Jan. 27, 2026.
Shares have roughly doubled since April and gained about 25% in January, according to a Reuters report. ASML reports earnings Wednesday, Jan. 28, and investors will watch for any changes to its 2026 sales outlook and production plans.
ASML’s EUV “printers” sit at the center of the AI buildout
ASML Holding NV is the only supplier of EUV lithography scanners, and analysts estimate it controls about 90% of the wider lithography market. Its EUV systems create 13.5-nanometer light by vaporizing droplets of tin with lasers 50,000 times a second, enabling the tight patterning required for today’s leading-edge logic chips.
“It’s the only game in town,” said John West, a semiconductor analyst at consultancy Yole Group, describing ASML’s EUV position.
That scarcity has helped make ASML Europe’s most valuable listed company. Earlier this month, it crossed $500 billion in market value after its biggest customer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., raised spending plans to keep up with AI-related demand.
Chipmakers’ 2026 budgets point to sustained EUV demand
TSMC forecast a 2026 capital budget of $52 billion to $56 billion in its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings-call transcript. Analysts cited by Reuters also expect higher 2026 spending at Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron Technology.
Those projections put Samsung’s 2026 capital spending around $40 billion, SK Hynix near $22 billion and Micron around $20 billion. With industry estimates suggesting roughly a quarter of semiconductor capital budgets flow to lithography, a broad-based capital-spending lift tends to translate into stronger demand for ASML’s most advanced tools.
ASML has also been flagging that momentum in its own results. In October, the company reported €5.4 billion in net bookings for the third quarter of 2025 — including €3.6 billion tied to EUV — and said it did not expect 2026 net sales to be below 2025, while cautioning that China demand could decline.
ASML’s long arc: High-NA milestones and policy headwinds
The AI-driven investment cycle is landing as ASML advances High-NA EUV, its next-generation platform. In 2024, ASML reached a “first light” milestone on its first High-NA EUV tool, a step toward systems designed for future chip nodes.
Geopolitics and trade policy remain swing factors. The Dutch government in 2024 expanded export licensing requirements for some ASML deep ultraviolet tools, and in mid-2025 ASML warned it might not achieve revenue growth in 2026 as customers weighed potential U.S. tariffs and delayed some investment decisions.
With ASML set to report results Wednesday, investors are watching whether the AI spending wave is strong enough to outweigh policy headwinds — and whether the company can expand output fast enough to ease the EUV bottleneck without eroding margins.
