LONDON — Global markets surged Wednesday after President Donald Trump said U.S. military strikes on Iran could end within two to three weeks, sending stocks sharply higher and oil lower as investors wagered the worst-case energy shock may begin to fade. The move reflected a fast unwind of war-risk trades that had weighed on equities, growth expectations and inflation sentiment through much of March, April 1, 2026.
Trump told reporters Tuesday that the United States could end its military campaign against Iran within two to three weeks and said Tehran did not need to make a deal with Washington for the conflict to wind down. The remark was his clearest signal yet that the White House may be looking for an off-ramp after a month of strikes and retaliation that rattled energy markets.
Why global markets rallied
By Wednesday, investors were piling back into risk assets around the world. Europe’s STOXX 600 rose about 2.3%, MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index outside Japan climbed 4.7%, South Korea’s Kospi jumped as much as 9.1% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 5.2%. U.S. stock futures also pointed higher after the S&P 500 gained 2.9% on Tuesday.
The mood shift was reinforced when AP reported Brent crude had dropped below $100 a barrel while Asian indexes posted broad gains, easing immediate fears that a prolonged disruption through the Strait of Hormuz would keep inflation hotter for longer and squeeze consumers and manufacturers alike.
Even so, the relief rally does not erase the economic damage already done. Reuters reported Monday that the IMF sees the war dimming the outlook for many economies, warning that a longer conflict would likely mean higher prices and slower growth even if headline markets stabilize.
How global markets got here
This snapback follows a pattern investors have been relearning in real time. When the strikes began on Feb. 28, Reuters laid out how U.S.-Iran tensions could shape world markets through oil, shipping and inflation. On March 9, Reuters highlighted an earlier relief rally after Trump hinted the war might not drag on, with stocks rebounding and crude retreating from intraday highs. And in January 2020, Reuters described a Wall Street selloff after the U.S. strike that killed Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani, a reminder that Middle East risk can reprice markets quickly even when the initial shock later fades.
What global markets may watch next
Traders are now likely to focus less on the first bounce and more on whether tanker traffic resumes, insurance costs fall and regional energy infrastructure avoids fresh damage. In Wednesday’s oil market update, Reuters said shipping disruptions and infrastructure damage could keep supplies tight even if the fighting eases, limiting how quickly oil and inflation pressures normalize.
For now, investors are treating Trump’s timeline as the first credible sign that the conflict may stop worsening faster than feared. That alone was enough to send global markets sharply higher, while leaving the next move dependent on whether relief turns into a durable ceasefire or just another brief pause.
