JERUSALEM — Middle East diplomacy moved on three fronts Thursday as a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire held, Israel and Lebanon tried to build on the first direct talks in decades opened this week, and mediators struggled to move Gaza’s ceasefire into a second phase, April 16. The tracks are increasingly colliding because Lebanon has become a pressure point in the wider Iran file while Gaza’s postwar plan remains stuck between disarmament demands, Israeli troop positions and a funding squeeze.
More than halfway through a two-week truce, Iran and the United States appear to have narrowed some differences under Pakistani mediation, but the biggest disputes are still untouched. The fate of Iran’s highly enriched uranium and the length of any nuclear restrictions remain unresolved, and Pakistan says no date has been set for a second round of talks.
Washington is still trying to keep the diplomatic window open. The White House said this week that contacts with Tehran remain positive and another round could take place in Pakistan, even as officials denied reports that the United States had formally sought an extension of the ceasefire.
The Lebanon track is newer but no less fragile. In Washington on Tuesday, the first direct talks between Israeli and Lebanese envoys in decades produced what both sides called constructive discussions, and the U.S. said the sides agreed to launch direct negotiations at a mutually agreed time and venue. But the meeting also laid bare the gap between the two positions: Israel wants Beirut to disarm Hezbollah and does not want a ceasefire to dominate the agenda, while Lebanon says a halt in fighting, the return of displaced civilians and humanitarian relief have to come first.
Gaza remains the slowest and most jammed file. This week’s Cairo meetings on the second phase of the Gaza deal showed that the core obstacle has not moved: Israel says Hamas must lay down its arms before any full Israeli withdrawal, while Hamas says disarmament cannot be discussed until the first phase is fully implemented and firing truly stops.
Even the civilian plan meant to follow the guns is bogged down. The U.S.-backed effort to reshape Gaza after the war has stalled because only a small share of the $17 billion pledged for reconstruction and governance has actually arrived, leaving the planned Palestinian technocratic committee unable, for now, to enter the enclave.
Middle East talks are moving, but not in the same direction
That mismatch is now the story. The Iran channel is alive because all sides want to avoid a renewed shock to oil and shipping. The Israel-Lebanon channel is alive because Washington is trying to keep the Hezbollah front from wrecking the wider truce, even as Tehran argues Lebanon should be included in any broader settlement and the United States rejects that linkage. Gaza, by contrast, remains trapped in the sequencing fight that has haunted nearly every ceasefire effort: whether security comes before politics, or politics before security.
The Lebanon track is not starting from zero. In 2022, the two countries finalized a U.S.-brokered maritime demarcation deal, a rare technical accommodation that stopped far short of recognition but showed limited bargains were still possible between states formally at war.
Gaza’s second phase has been wobbling for much longer. In May 2025, mediators were already failing to implement a second phase of the ceasefire, and by January 2026 Washington was pushing ahead with phase two and a Palestinian technocratic committee even though the first phase was still incomplete.
For now, that leaves the region with movement but not closure. The Iran truce is holding, the Israel-Lebanon channel has finally opened, and Gaza remains stalled at the point where every ceasefire becomes hardest: who governs, who disarms and who pays to rebuild.
