DHAKA, Bangladesh — Bangladesh is heading into a Feb. 12 national election that is reshaping Bangladesh China relations and widening a rift with India, as the main parties position Beijing as a key economic and security partner, Feb. 10, 2026.
The pivot is being reinforced by a China-backed drone manufacturing project and a deepening political dispute over deposed Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who fled to India after being ousted in 2024 and remains at the center of Dhaka’s demands and public anger.
In a Reuters analysis of China’s expanding footprint in Bangladesh, officials and analysts described a post-Hasina landscape in which Dhaka is increasingly open to Chinese capital and diplomacy, while ties with New Delhi have been strained by visa curbs, public disputes and a broader backlash toward India’s role during Hasina’s long rule.
Bangladesh China relations: the drone deal becomes a new barometer
The most visible new marker is the defense and technology push around unmanned aircraft. Bangladesh’s air force has signed an agreement with China Electronics Technology Group Corporation International to set up a domestic unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing and assembly facility, including technology transfer, according to a report on the drone manufacturing deal by Anadolu Agency.
Supporters of the project say the capability will extend beyond military uses, including disaster response and humanitarian operations. Critics and regional observers, however, view the plan through a geopolitical lens because the factory is expected to be built near the Indian border, putting the defense component of Bangladesh China relations in sharper focus than before.
Economically, the pull is already substantial. China has been Bangladesh’s largest trading partner for more than a decade, with annual trade near $18 billion, driven heavily by Bangladeshi imports. That imbalance has long been a feature of Bangladesh China relations — and now appears increasingly accepted by politicians who want rapid infrastructure and industrial investment without the political baggage they associate with India.
That trajectory is not new. During President Xi Jinping’s landmark visit in 2016, China was preparing to sign off on roughly $24 billion in loans for major projects, a milestone widely seen as institutionalizing Beijing’s role in Bangladesh’s development plans, according to a 2016 Reuters report on Xi’s Bangladesh trip and planned lending.
India ties deteriorate as Dhaka heads to the polls
India remains too large a neighbor — geographically and economically — for Dhaka to ignore. Government data cited by Reuters puts annual Bangladesh-India trade at about $13.5 billion, dominated by Indian exports. Still, political relations have frayed since Hasina’s fall, with Dhaka repeatedly pressing for her extradition and India keeping a lower public profile in Bangladesh’s transition.
A Chatham House assessment of India’s post-election reset challenge notes that New Delhi is trying to stabilize the relationship after nearly 18 months of interim rule in Bangladesh, but faces mistrust tied to India’s close partnership with Hasina’s Awami League and the fact that she continues to live in India.
The deterioration is especially stark when viewed against recent history. In 2015, the two countries signed a landmark land boundary agreement aimed at untangling long-standing enclave disputes and deepening cooperation — a high point in modern Dhaka-New Delhi ties, documented in a 2015 Reuters report on the land boundary pact.
What Feb. 12 could mean for Dhaka’s balancing act
Voters are choosing a new parliament on Thursday, Feb. 12, in a contest that follows a rare period of interim rule and includes a separate national referendum on institutional reforms. According to an IFES overview of Bangladesh’s 2026 election and referendum, the combined ballot is an unprecedented test of public confidence in the electoral process and the future rules of governance.
No matter which coalition wins, analysts expect a more China-friendly tone in Dhaka — but not a complete break with India. The next government is likely to keep expanding Bangladesh China relations where money and technology are available, while seeking a workable, security-minded relationship with the neighbor that surrounds Bangladesh on three sides.
