SINGAPORE — Gold price fell below $5,000 an ounce in thin Asian trading Tuesday as the U.S. dollar strengthened and investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes. With many regional markets shut for Lunar New Year, low liquidity amplified the slide in the gold price and kept traders focused on whether the minutes will reinforce expectations for rate cuts later this year, Feb. 17, 2026.
Gold price slide in Asia: thin liquidity meets a firmer dollar
Spot gold fell 1.5% to $4,918.65 an ounce by 9:33 a.m. GMT after dropping more than 2% earlier in the session, according to Reuters. U.S. gold futures for April were last down 2.2% near $4,937.
The U.S. dollar index gained 0.2% against a basket of major currencies, a modest move that still matters for a commodity priced in dollars. A firmer greenback can pressure the gold price by making bullion more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Spot silver fell 2.5% to $74.63 an ounce after a sharper drop earlier. Platinum slipped 2.5% to $1,991.01. Palladium fell 3.1% to $1,670.92.
Liquidity was thin because several major Asian markets were closed for the Lunar New Year holidays. Mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea were among those shut, a seasonal break that can exaggerate price swings when fewer traders are active. In similar holiday-thinned conditions a day earlier, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said gold was “range-trading around $5,000/oz in a week with lower liquidity due to holidays,” according to a separate Reuters report.
Gold price and the Fed minutes: why Wednesday’s release matters
Investors are positioning for fresh details on how officials weighed inflation, growth and the timing of any additional easing. The minutes from the Fed’s Jan. 27-28 meeting are scheduled for release at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday, according to the Federal Reserve’s February 2026 calendar.
Fed funds futures probabilities are widely tracked through the CME FedWatch Tool. Markets have been leaning toward a first rate cut around June, though expectations can shift quickly with inflation and jobs data.
For bullion, the link runs through yields and the dollar: when investors expect lower rates, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold tends to fall, which can help the gold price. When the dollar firms, the gold price often faces a headwind.
Dollar strength is small, but it adds up
The benchmark for dollar moves in many trading rooms is the ICE U.S. Dollar Index. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) futures contract measures the dollar against a basket of major currencies and is frequently referenced in macro commentary as a shorthand for broad dollar direction.
Geopolitics still matters, but the gold price is pausing for clarity
Gold’s appeal as a hedge against crisis has not disappeared, but the market’s immediate “risk-off” impulse looked muted. ActivTrades analyst Ricardo Evangelista said traders were in a “wait-and-see mode” and that “safe-haven demand has paused.”
Indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran over the nuclear issue were due to take place in Geneva, while Ukrainian and Russian representatives were also expected there for U.S.-mediated discussions. For traders, the immediate question is whether a steadier geopolitical backdrop reduces urgency for hedges, or simply delays it.
How the gold price got here: continuity from $4,200 to $5,000
Today’s dip below $5,000 is notable largely because that level has become a psychological marker. The market’s path to this point has been steep:
In October 2025, gold breached $4,200 for the first time as rate-cut bets and safe-haven demand accelerated, Reuters reported.
In late January, spot gold surged above $5,000 and hit an all-time high above $5,180 amid heightened uncertainty. “Rallies normally end because the drivers that took people into the gold market originally dissipate – and that’s just not the case,” Bank of America strategist Michael Widmer said in comments carried by Reuters.
By early February, after a sharp pullback, analysts were still arguing that the uptrend remained intact, even if volatility would persist, according to a separate Reuters analysis.
Against that backdrop, a break back below $5,000 can look less like a collapse and more like a reset in positioning — especially when trading is thin and macro catalysts are imminent.
What happens next for the gold price
In the near term, traders will watch whether the gold price can regain $5,000 once Asian liquidity normalizes and the Fed minutes are out. If policymakers sound more cautious about additional easing, yields and the dollar could stay firm, keeping pressure on bullion.
If the minutes lean dovish or subsequent data pushes investors toward faster cuts, the gold price could stabilize as the dollar cools and rate expectations reset.
Disclosure: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
