NEW YORK — The gold price surged above $5,000 an ounce Monday as a softer U.S. dollar and falling yields sent investors back into the haven metal before a decisive run of U.S. data. Traders said the move reflects growing bets that interest rates may head lower again if inflation cools and hiring slows, Feb. 9, 2026.
Spot gold was up about 1% at $5,008.51 per ounce, while U.S. April futures traded near $5,029.40 after Friday’s 4% jump, according to a Reuters market report. The dollar slipped about 0.3%, making bullion cheaper for overseas buyers and amplifying the gold price move.
The pullback in the greenback has been broad. The Federal Reserve’s trade-weighted dollar index has eased in recent sessions, a tailwind for dollar-denominated commodities — especially when investors are already hunting for hedges.
Gold price faces a data test: jobs report and CPI
The next catalyst arrives midweek. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release January nonfarm payrolls, Feb. 11, 2026, according to its employment report schedule. Two days later, the agency publishes the January CPI, Feb. 13, 2026, per its CPI release calendar.
Those readings will shape how quickly markets think the Federal Reserve can ease. Futures pricing tracked by the CME FedWatch tool shows traders already leaning toward at least two quarter-point cuts in 2026. Lower rates tend to lift the gold price by reducing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Friday the labor market is in a “precarious” position and that additional rate cuts may be needed, a signal investors are weighing ahead of the data and the next swing in the gold price.
What’s driving the gold price rally
Beyond rate bets, demand has shifted in ways that make the rally feel stickier. Rania Gule, a senior market analyst at XS.com, said “Gold reclaims its historical role as a neutral sovereign asset,” pointing to waning appetite for holding the dollar as the default haven.
China’s central bank extended its gold buying spree to a 15th straight month in January, adding to the sense that official-sector demand is now a floor beneath the gold price even as jewelry demand risks being pinched by higher levels.
Still, the gold price has been anything but calm. After spiking to records late January, it saw sharp pullbacks that rattled leveraged traders and encouraged profit-taking after outsized moves. That volatility leaves investors especially sensitive to surprises in the jobs report and CPI.
How the gold price got here
The climb to $5,000 follows a staircase of milestones. In 2020, bullion first cracked $2,000 during the pandemic-era dash for safety, as detailed in Reuters’ Aug. 5, 2020, report. It refreshed records in 2024 amid expectations the Fed would start cutting, noted in a March 21, 2024, Reuters story, then cleared $3,000 in early 2025 in Reuters’ March 14, 2025, coverage.
For now, the gold price is set to take its cue from the data. A soft jobs number or a cooler CPI print could reinforce the case for lower rates and keep the rally alive. A surprise re-acceleration in inflation, or resilient hiring, could send the gold price back into a consolidation range as markets reprice the path of policy.
