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Honduras election in a dramatic dead heat as Trump’s controversial pardon of ex‑President Hernández roils a high‑stakes vote count

TEGUCIGALPA, Honduras — The death of a Honduran suspected gang member at the hands of police who were trying to arrest him drew criticism from opposition politicians and authorities Monday as the country’s presidential election campaign rolled on with centrist TV host Salvador Nasralla maintaining his lead in the polls against right-wing rival Nasry “Tito” Asfura, Dec. 3, 2025.

With about 68 per cent of tally sheets processed, electoral authorities have Nasralla at around 40 per cent of the vote and Asfura just slightly less, according to Reuters, a thin margin that both men say gives them momentum. The count has slowed as officials have placed more of the Honduras election tally in hand-counted precinct records, and after the National Electoral Council’s online results page went down, according to AP News.

The council has appealed for calm, and now updates its vote count in sporadic briefings to parties and the press rather than on a real-time website that most Hondurans had anticipated. Observers from the Organisation of American States report that election day was mostly peaceful, but they caution that prolonged uncertainty over Honduras’ election results could lead to protests in a country seeking consensus after years of divisiveness and low confidence in institutions.

Power Up: Trump’s pardon rattles a delicate Honduras election

Later portrayed in Washington as a pro-security partner for U.S. authorities, Hernández — once the National Party chief — was subsequently described by American prosecutors as having transformed Honduras into a “narco-state.” After his extradition and conviction in New York, he was sentenced to 45 years for helping traffickers use Honduran military bases to move hundreds of tons of cocaine heading north toward the United States — until Trump suddenly granted him a full pardon this week and Hernández walked free, according to an Associated Press report.

Trump has said the move corrects what he describes as a politically motivated “set-up” by the Biden administration, even though investigators from both countries laid out evidence — allegations of everything from drug money fueling National Party campaigns to drug lords being able to buy protection from prosecution with bribes like bags of rice — that matched their findings. The pardon happened as Trump loudly called on Hondurans to support Asfura and warned there would be “hell to pay” if vote totals are altered, heightening opposition allegations that Washington was again placing itself on the side of a Honduran election.

Critics in the US say it is a slap in the face to both Trump himself (given his own belligerent rhetoric about traffickers) and leaders committed to cracking down on corruption across the region, a case made in a Vox explainer, while Hernández supporters say he is just a scapegoat for the wider failures in the war on drugs. But many Hondurans view the saga as further evidence that the powerful are able to negotiate their way out of accountability even as ordinary citizens are confronted by violence, poverty and mass migration.

Past crises haunt today’s Honduras election.

The knife-edge count has rekindled memories of the 2017 Honduras election, when a days-long blackout in reporting results was followed by a late surge that gave Hernández a second term. At the time, reporting from international media and rights groups described a military-enforced curfew, deadly clashes with security forces and calls to investigate alleged fraud — scars that helped solidify the belief among many voters that elections are rigged long before they go to vote.

Nasralla, who served as vice president under outgoing President Xiomara Castro and is now the standard-bearer of the Liberal Party, has promised to reconstitute the courts, end impunity, and not make a routine practice of involving the military in policing. Asfura, a construction magnate and former mayor of the capital, Tegucigalpa, has emphasised stability and investment while trying to distance himself from Hernández personally, even as he depends on the National Party machine that the ex-president built.

Whichever candidate comes out on top in the final Honduras election tally will inherit profound poverty, stubborn gang violence and renewed pressure from Trump’s Washington over migration and drugs — even as both of the leading candidates have hinted they may pull Honduras back toward Taiwan and away from China. For now, Hondurans are hitting the refresh button on partial results and gazing at the streets with a question in mind: Will their votes this time lead to a clear, legitimate result — or drag them into another bruising dispute?

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