INDIAN WELLS, Calif. — Daniil Medvedev stunned Carlos Alcaraz 6-3, 7-6 (3) in Saturday’s BNP Paribas Open semifinal to end the world No. 1’s unbeaten 16-0 start to 2026 and set up a Sunday championship match against Jannik Sinner. He did it by taking the ball earlier, serving bigger in the tight moments and shutting the door in the second-set tiebreak, while Sinner reached the title match earlier in the day with a straight-sets win over Alexander Zverev, Saturday, March 14.
Medvedev’s win was not just an upset; it was a tactical reversal. In Medvedev’s straight-sets semifinal win over Alcaraz, the former world No. 1 saved two set points at 4-5 in the second set, won 74% of his second-serve points and finally turned the tables on a rival who had beaten him in back-to-back Indian Wells finals.
Sinner made sure the day ended with the tournament’s strongest possible title match. Sinner’s 6-2, 6-4 semifinal win over Zverev sent the Italian into his first Indian Wells final, and Sunday’s start time is listed for not before 5 p.m. ET as he chases a first crown in the California desert.
Indian Wells final preview
This final now carries more than one storyline. In ATP Tour’s final preview, Sinner takes an 8-7 edge in the head-to-head into Sunday after winning eight of the pair’s past nine meetings, while Medvedev comes into the title match looking revived after title runs in Brisbane and Dubai.
There is also the bigger desert picture. As the tournament’s Championship Sunday preview noted, both men are bidding for a first Indian Wells title, and Alcaraz’s reaction to Medvedev’s performance only raised the stakes: “I have never seen, to be honest, Daniil playing like this.”
A rivalry shaped by recent history
Saturday’s result felt even bigger because it snapped a recent pattern. Alcaraz beat Medvedev in the 2023 Indian Wells final and then did it again in the 2024 Indian Wells final, both times in straight sets. This time, Medvedev was the player dictating terms.
The Sinner matchup has its own recent edge. In their 2024 ATP Finals meeting, Sinner beat Medvedev 6-3, 6-4 in Turin, the most recent chapter in a rivalry that has swung sharply in the Italian’s favor. That is what makes Sunday so compelling: Medvedev has rediscovered his aggression at exactly the moment he needs it most, and Sinner has not dropped a set all tournament.
For Medvedev, the final is a chance to turn a statement semifinal into a title he has never won. For Sinner, it is an opportunity to back up a week in which he has not dropped a set and finally take a first Indian Wells title.
