KYIV, Ukraine — U.S.-led negotiations for a Ukraine peace deal moved into a critical final phase this week as President Donald Trump pressed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin for compromises after weekend talks in Florida, Dec. 31, 2025.
Moscow signaled it could tighten its negotiating posture after accusing Ukraine of trying to attack one of Putin’s residences — an allegation Kyiv denied and Reuters said it could not independently verify — while saying it would review its stance without quitting the talks.
Ukraine peace deal: the three obstacles negotiators still can’t paper over
Territory: Donbas withdrawal vs. freezing the front
The biggest gap remains land. Russia is demanding that Ukraine pull its forces out of the remaining pocket of the Donbas it still controls, while Kyiv is arguing for a ceasefire along current front lines and deferring any final territorial settlement.
Trump said the parties were “maybe very close” to an agreement but that “thorny” territorial issues remained. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said peace could be achieved “within weeks” but stressed it was “far from 100% certain,” according to remarks reported by Reuters. Tusk said a referendum would likely be needed for Ukrainians to consent to any territorial decisions.
Zaporizhzhia: a nuclear plant that keeps returning to the table
The Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant has become both a safety concern and a bargaining chip. The site is not generating electricity, but it still needs steady off-site power to cool nuclear fuel — a vulnerability highlighted by repeated damage to power lines.
A Russian-installed plant administration said an external power line to the plant was restored after repairs carried out with International Atomic Energy Agency monitors present, adding that radiation levels were normal. Zelenskyy has said U.S. negotiators floated the idea of joint operation of the plant with an American chief manager, underscoring how the facility’s future has become entangled in Ukraine peace deal talks.
Security guarantees: what “presence” means — and what Russia rejects
Zelenskyy has framed guarantees as the price of any Ukraine peace deal, arguing that a pause without credible backers would invite a renewed Russian attack. The United States is offering Ukraine security guarantees for 15 years as part of a proposed peace plan, Zelenskyy has said, while pushing for a longer-term commitment.
“Without security guarantees, realistically, this war will not end,” Zelenskyy said. Russia has long rejected NATO membership for Ukraine and has said foreign troop deployments would be unacceptable, even as some European leaders discuss a possible international “presence” after any settlement.
Kyiv is also signaling new flexibility: Zelenskyy told U.S. envoys earlier this month that Ukraine could drop its NATO goal in exchange for legally binding Western guarantees, saying, “And it is already a compromise on our part,” Reuters reported after the Berlin talks.
Past diplomacy casts a long shadow
The themes on the table are not new. In March 2022, Ukraine floated neutrality in exchange for NATO-style security guarantees during face-to-face talks with Russia in Istanbul — a track that collapsed as the war intensified and hardened positions on sovereignty and territory.
In June 2024, a Swiss-hosted peace summit joint communiqué tied any framework to international law and called for nuclear plants, including Zaporizhzhia, to operate safely “under full sovereign control of Ukraine.” Those principles still shape Kyiv’s public stance as it weighs what a Ukraine peace deal could realistically look like.
With security advisers due to meet in Ukraine, Jan. 3, followed by leaders in France, Jan. 6, the next phase of negotiations will test whether the sides can narrow the gap — or whether mistrust, battlefield pressure and competing red lines push the Ukraine peace deal further out of reach.
