WASHINGTON — The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the December US CPI report Tuesday, a national inflation read after a 43-day federal shutdown muddied earlier data. Economists expect a 0.3% monthly rise that keeps annual inflation near 2.6% to 2.7% and reinforces the view that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady later this month, Jan. 13, 2026.
The report is due at 8:30 a.m. ET and could move markets because investors are trying to separate real price pressure from statistical “noise” created when the shutdown delayed or limited October price collection.
US CPI forecasts: what’s driving the rebound
Forecasters broadly expect both headline and core inflation — which strips out food and energy — to rise about 0.3% in December. If the consensus holds, it would be a firmer reading than November, when holiday discounting and shutdown-related gaps likely pulled the gauge lower than it otherwise would have been.
During the shutdown, officials carried forward some prices rather than collecting them, a stopgap that can temporarily understate or overstate inflation depending on what prices were doing in real time. The BLS has said the unusual methods will echo through several reports, with some housing measures not fully clearing until April, according to its shutdown impact explanation.
“We expect the CPI report to show a meaningful payback after collection issues, due to the government shutdown,” said Oscar Munoz, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities.
Beyond the technical quirks, economists are watching for more typical December influences: energy costs, especially electricity, and a pickup in core goods like cars, furniture and apparel as promotions fade. Travel-related services such as lodging and airfares could also bounce seasonally.
Why the Fed is expected to hold after the US CPI report
The data arrives ahead of the Fed’s Jan. 27-28 meeting on the 2026 FOMC calendar. The central bank trimmed rates at its last three meetings of 2025 and set the federal funds target in a 3.5% to 3.75% range, detailed in its Dec. 10 policy statement.
A rebound in US CPI would not automatically change policy — officials focus on the personal consumption expenditures price index — but it can influence expectations for how quickly inflation is easing. Three areas are likely to draw the most attention:
Shelter: Any sign that rent and owners’ equivalent rent are firming again after shutdown distortions.
Core goods: Small swings in vehicles and apparel can move the core US CPI reading.
Energy: Headline inflation can jump quickly if gasoline or electricity prices rise.
Inflation has cooled dramatically from the 9.1% peak hit in mid-2022, documented in an AP report at the time, and it has seen fits and starts along the way — including the surprise monthly decline in June 2024 covered by Reuters.
If Tuesday’s US CPI shows inflation stuck near 3%, investors may lean further into the idea that the Fed can wait for cleaner data before cutting again, especially while shutdown-related distortions are still washing through the numbers.
