TALLINN, Estonia — Estonia’s foreign intelligence service warned Tuesday that Russia is rebuilding military power at speed and has increased artillery ammunition production more than 17-fold since 2021, even as it wages war in Ukraine, Feb. 10, 2026.
The Estonia intelligence report said Moscow is unlikely to attack any NATO country in 2026 or 2027, but argued Europe must accelerate defense investment, industrial output and internal security to keep deterrence credible as Russia regenerates forces for a longer confrontation.
Estonia intelligence report: the 17-fold ammunition surge and what it signals
In its annual public threat assessment, International Security and Estonia 2026, the Estonia intelligence report estimates Russia’s military-industrial complex has boosted artillery ammunition production more than seventeenfold since 2021 — a shift it says points to preparation for potential future conflicts beyond Ukraine.
The Estonia intelligence report pegs Russia’s total artillery ammunition output in 2025 at roughly 7 million shells, mortar rounds and rockets. It says the Kremlin can sustain operations in Ukraine while rebuilding parts of a strategic stockpile that the report estimates was as high as 20 million rounds before the 2022 invasion and was heavily depleted in the first two years of the war.
The report also says Russia has supplemented domestic production with imports from Iran and North Korea since 2023, and argues the combination of higher output and external supplies increases Moscow’s room to both fight now and bank reserves for later.
Why the Estonia intelligence report sees no NATO attack in 2026 or 2027
The Estonia intelligence report’s core judgment is that Russia has “no intention” of militarily attacking Estonia or any other NATO member state in the coming year, and it expects a similar assessment next year. The report adds there is “no cause for panic,” but it frames preparedness as the key reason Moscow keeps calculating carefully what it can risk.
Still, the Estonia intelligence report argues Russia’s military reform will improve capabilities over the next several years, urging NATO members to keep investing so the balance of power continues to favor allies.
Russia’s rebuild, drones and Europe’s race to rearm
Beyond shells, the Estonia intelligence report says Russia is adapting its forces for “unmanned warfare,” creating unmanned systems units across services. It warns any future conflict could feature large numbers of drones and unmanned systems operating simultaneously on land, in the air and at sea.
Those findings were echoed in coverage of the annual assessment by Reuters’ report on Estonia’s warning about Russia’s military buildup, including the argument that Moscow wants to slow Europe’s rearmament and buy time as European militaries and industry expand capacity.
On the European side, governments are trying to turn political will into factory output. NATO defense ministers agreed an updated Defence Production Action Plan aimed at accelerating industrial capacity and multinational procurement, while the European Union continues to push initiatives designed to shorten supply chains and expand production.
One of the EU’s headline efforts is the Act in Support of Ammunition Production, built to expand ammunition manufacturing capacity and help refill stocks as Ukraine’s battlefield consumption pressures European reserves.
EU lawmakers have also advanced longer-term tools such as the European Defence Industry Programme, designed to support cross-border defense industrial cooperation and more predictable supply for member states.
Continuity check: how this Estonia intelligence report fits earlier warnings
This year’s Estonia intelligence report builds on a pattern of public warnings from Estonia’s services. In 2025, Estonia’s public broadcaster highlighted the previous assessment’s main themes in a roundup of takeaways from Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service report, including the emphasis on Russia’s force regeneration and the need to keep deterrence credible.
In 2024, reporting on the annual assessment also stressed NATO’s industrial readiness. The Kyiv Independent’s coverage of the Estonian intelligence report noted warnings about Russia reorganizing forces near NATO’s border and the need for better-stocked ammunition reserves.
And last year, Reuters reported that Estonia’s intelligence service warned China had become a key route for sanctions evasion tied to Russian drone production, as detailed in a Reuters story about Estonia’s claims on smuggled components and Russian drones — a supply-chain concern echoed again in the 2026 assessment’s focus on bottlenecks and vulnerabilities.
What the Estonia intelligence report is really asking Europe to do
Stripped down, the Estonia intelligence report is less a prediction of an imminent NATO war than a warning about momentum: Russia is rebuilding faster than many European capitals expected, and it is doing so in ways — ammunition, drones and broader military reform — that could shorten decision time in any future crisis.
For Europe, the report’s message is urgent but not fatalistic: keep spending, keep producing and keep tightening the weak links — from industrial bottlenecks to internal security — so Moscow continues to see the costs of escalation as prohibitive.
