JD Vance still leads, but Rubio made the weekend’s biggest move
In Reuters’ report on the straw poll, no other possible contender topped 2%, making the vote largely a two-candidate test of conservative enthusiasm. Vance still posted the clearest win, but his margin was notably smaller than it was a year ago, when he led the same survey with 61% and Rubio drew 3%.
That shift matters because Rubio’s rise appears tied to more than simple name recognition. Reuters reported that his more visible foreign-policy role, including administration work tied to Venezuela and Iran, helped raise his standing with activists who once seemed to view the early 2028 field as almost entirely Vance’s to lose.
The setting sharpened that contrast. In AP’s recap of this year’s CPAC, the conference was framed around Republican unity, immigration and the fallout from U.S. action against Iran, with Donald Trump still dominating the mood of the gathering even though he did not attend.
That tension was visible before the straw poll was announced. In a Reuters preview of the conference, CPAC Chairman Matt Schlapp said he wanted the event to reduce GOP infighting ahead of the midterm elections, a reminder that the next Republican standard-bearer will be judged not only on closeness to Trump, but also on whether he can keep the coalition from splintering.
How JD Vance fits into the longer 2028 conversation
The current split also follows a signal Trump sent months ago. In Reuters’ August 2025 report, Trump said Vance was his likely heir apparent and floated a future Republican ticket that included Rubio, an early sign that both men were already being discussed inside the same succession conversation.
Even with that continuity, CPAC has a mixed record as a forecasting tool. In Reuters’ 2022 report on Trump’s CPAC straw-poll win, the outlet noted that the conference draws heavily from the Republican Party’s conservative wing and that its annual survey is not always a reliable predictor of the eventual nominee.
For now, Vance leaves Grapevine with the headline result and front-runner status inside a key conservative audience. Rubio leaves with something nearly as valuable: evidence that a sizable bloc of activists is now ready to make the 2028 Republican conversation more competitive than it looked a year ago.
