California Governor Race Enters Crucial New Phase as Steve Hilton and Xavier Becerra Lead High-Stakes Primary With Congress Power at Risk
The California governor race entered a pivotal new phase Tuesday night as Republican Steve Hilton and Democrat Xavier Becerra emerged as the leading contenders in the state’s closely watched primary election, setting up a contest with implications far beyond Sacramento.
With roughly half of expected ballots still to be counted, Hilton held about 27% of the vote while Becerra followed closely with approximately 26%, according to early election returns. Under California’s top-two primary system, the two highest vote-getters advance to the November general election regardless of party affiliation.
The race to replace term-limited Gov. Gavin Newsom has become one of the most expensive gubernatorial contests in California history, drawing national attention because of its potential impact on congressional control, voter turnout, and the political landscape heading into the 2028 presidential cycle.
California governor race results reshape November outlook
Early returns suggest California voters are moving toward a traditional Democrat-versus-Republican showdown in November, a scenario that appeared uncertain only months ago when a crowded field threatened to produce an all-Democratic general election.
Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra, who also served as California attorney general, surged from single-digit polling numbers earlier in the campaign to become one of the race’s frontrunners. Meanwhile, Hilton, a former Fox News commentator and political strategist, consolidated Republican support and maintained a strong position throughout much of the race.
According to reporting from Reuters, the primary also served as an early test of newly drawn congressional districts that could influence control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
Billionaire environmental activist Tom Steyer remained competitive but trailed the leading pair in early vote counts, while several prominent Democratic candidates, including Katie Porter and Matt Mahan, acknowledged disappointing performances.
Why the California governor race matters nationally
The stakes extend well beyond the governor’s mansion.
Political strategists from both parties have closely monitored whether Republicans could secure a spot in the November ballot. A Hilton-Becerra matchup is expected to energize voters across the state, potentially affecting turnout in key congressional districts where control of House seats remains fiercely contested.
Election analysts have also pointed to California’s redistricting changes as a factor that could influence the national balance of power. Competitive House races in newly configured districts may become more consequential if gubernatorial turnout drives broader voter participation.
The race also unfolds as Democrats debate the future direction of the party following President Donald Trump‘s return to the White House. Becerra has positioned himself as an experienced governing figure, while Hilton has campaigned on affordability, public safety and regulatory reform.
How the race evolved over time
The path to this point has been anything but predictable.
In May, polling showed Becerra narrowly leading a volatile three-way contest with Hilton and Steyer as undecided voters remained unusually high for a race of this magnitude. The contest lacked a clear frontrunner for months after several high-profile Democrats declined to run and former Rep. Eric Swalwell exited the race amid controversy.
Earlier coverage from the Los Angeles Times documented how Hilton and Becerra effectively pulled even in polling during the campaign’s final stretch.
Just days before voting began, another Los Angeles Times survey found Becerra leading while Hilton and Steyer battled for the second qualifying position, highlighting the uncertainty that persisted until Election Day.
The governor’s race was further shaped by record-breaking spending. Independent expenditure groups, labor organizations, corporations and wealthy donors poured hundreds of millions of dollars into the campaign, making it one of the costliest statewide contests in California history.
What happens next?
Election officials caution that final results could take days or even weeks because California accepts mail ballots postmarked by Election Day and processes a large volume of late-arriving votes.
As counting continues, attention will shift toward whether Hilton can maintain his lead and whether Becerra can capitalize on late-counted Democratic ballots, which historically favor Democratic candidates.
The outcome will determine not only who is positioned to become California’s next governor but also how national parties approach congressional battlegrounds heading into November.
Additional election analysis from the SFGATE reporting on primary results and the Financial Times’ examination of Hilton’s rise underscores how rapidly the race evolved from a fragmented contest into a nationally significant political showdown.
