The latest Consumer Price Index report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed food-at-home prices rose 1.9% over the 12 months ending in March, while food away from home rose 3.8%. Fruits and vegetables climbed 4% from a year earlier, and nonalcoholic beverages rose 4.7%, keeping pressure on weekly budgets even as some categories, including dairy and meats, poultry, fish and eggs, declined.
For many households, the pain is cumulative. Grocery inflation has slowed from the worst of the early-decade surge, but families are still comparing today’s receipts with what they paid before the pandemic-era inflation shock. A 2025 CBS News look at the affordability crisis found food prices remained sharply higher than in early 2022, helping explain why consumers continued to feel squeezed even after inflation cooled.
Grocery prices keep straining household budgets
The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects the pressure to continue through 2026. Its April food price outlook forecast overall food prices to rise 2.9% this year, with food-at-home prices up 2.4% and restaurant prices up 3.6%. The agency projected particularly steep increases for sugar and sweets, nonalcoholic beverages and fresh vegetables.
Those increases are forcing families to make smaller, quieter adjustments: fewer impulse purchases, more store-brand items, less meat, fewer snacks and fewer restaurant meals. The result is an affordability crisis that shows up not only in economic data, but also in changed shopping habits.
The strain has appeared in federal household surveys as well. The U.S. Census Bureau said its latest Household Trends and Outlook Pulse Survey data continued tracking food sufficiency, household expenses and other measures of financial stress, offering a window into how families are managing basic needs.
Community organizations have reported similar pressure. In the Federal Reserve’s April Beige Book community summaries, nonprofit and local leaders said lower-income households continued to struggle with necessities, according to Federal Reserve community perspectives collected from districts across the country.
Years of high costs changed how families shop
The current moment follows several years of warnings that food costs were altering consumer behavior. In 2025, Reuters reported grocery prices had posted a notable monthly decline as egg prices fell, but the relief was uneven and did not erase the larger increase families had absorbed since 2020.
Earlier research also showed the persistence of the problem. An Urban Institute report on food affordability in 2024 found many households faced continuing challenges paying for groceries or meals even after the pace of inflation slowed.
The issue has become politically and economically central because food is one of the most visible prices consumers encounter. A Brookings Institution analysis said rising costs across major household expenses are helping make affordability a defining issue in 2026.
Economists often point out that slowing inflation does not mean falling prices. For families, that distinction can feel academic: A grocery bill that rises more slowly is still rising, and the higher base leaves little room for error when rent, utilities, child care and debt payments are also competing for income.
Food companies and retailers have tried to appeal to budget-conscious shoppers with value lines, discounts and loyalty programs. But many families remain focused on essentials, buying fewer premium products and stretching meals further. For low-income households, the trade-offs can be more severe, including skipped meals or increased reliance on food banks.
The outlook offers limited relief. Some categories may fall, and egg prices are expected to ease as supply recovers. But USDA forecasts suggest broad food costs will keep moving higher in 2026, meaning the affordability crisis is likely to remain a household reality even if headline inflation improves.
Until wages and household income catch up with the cumulative rise in food costs, grocery prices will remain one of the clearest signs of how deeply the affordability crisis is affecting American families.
