BEIRUT — Hezbollah is facing one of its gravest crises in decades as Lebanon’s Health Ministry figures put the toll from Israeli attacks since March 2 at 2,659 killed and 8,183 wounded, while a U.S.-mediated ceasefire between Israel and the Iran-backed group continues to falter across southern Lebanon. The crisis has deepened as Israeli forces press a ground and air campaign, Hezbollah continues attacks on Israeli positions, and Lebanese leaders face rising pressure to curb the group’s weapons, May 3, 2026.
The latest round of fighting began March 2, when Hezbollah fired rockets into northern Israel after U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, according to an Associated Press report. Israel has since carried out hundreds of airstrikes and launched a ground invasion of southern Lebanon, while a ceasefire that took effect April 17 has failed to stop daily violence.
Hezbollah faces mounting losses and political backlash
A Reuters analysis published Sunday said Hezbollah has paid a heavy price since reentering the war, including the loss of large numbers of fighters, the displacement of many Shiite supporters and intensified opposition from Lebanese rivals who say the group has exposed the country to repeated wars with Israel.
The casualty figures remain politically and militarily sensitive. Lebanon’s Health Ministry does not separate civilians from combatants in its public toll, while Hezbollah has not released a complete count of its fighters killed in the latest conflict. Reuters reported that some internal estimates point to several thousand Hezbollah fighters killed, a figure the group’s media office disputed while acknowledging it does not yet have a full toll.
The crisis has also weakened Hezbollah’s standing inside Lebanon. The group has long defended its arsenal as necessary to deter Israel, but the scale of destruction in southern Lebanon and Beirut’s southern suburbs has sharpened calls for the Lebanese state to assert sole control over war and peace decisions.
Ceasefire strains as Israeli evacuation orders spread
The ceasefire appeared increasingly fragile Sunday after the Israeli military issued new Israeli evacuation warnings to residents of 11 southern Lebanese towns and villages. The military said it was carrying out operations against Hezbollah after what it described as a ceasefire violation and warned civilians to move at least 1,000 meters away from targeted areas.
Israel says its campaign is aimed at Hezbollah fighters, weapons sites and infrastructure used to threaten northern Israel. Hezbollah says it is responding to Israeli strikes and the continued presence of Israeli forces inside southern Lebanon. The result is a ceasefire that has reduced some large-scale fighting but has not delivered security for civilians on either side of the border.
Civilians, medics and journalists remain exposed
The humanitarian cost has become central to the conflict. A U.N. Human Rights report said Israeli operations in Lebanon included cases of direct attacks on civilians and medical personnel that may constitute serious violations of international humanitarian law. The same report said Hezbollah’s reported use of unguided rockets in residential areas of Israel may also constitute serious violations.
Hospitals in southern Lebanon have struggled to operate as wounded residents return to damaged towns because they cannot afford prolonged displacement. More than 100 health workers have been killed in Lebanon during the war, according to figures cited by AP, while aid groups have warned that medics and first responders face deadly risks when trying to reach strike sites.
How the Hezbollah crisis built over time
The current crisis follows a sequence of shocks that began during the Israel-Hamas war and reshaped Hezbollah’s position in Lebanon. In September 2024, AP reported that Hezbollah confirmed Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut’s southern suburbs, ending more than three decades of leadership by the group’s most influential figure.
Two months later, a U.S.- and French-brokered ceasefire appeared to open a path away from full war. Reuters reported in November 2024 that the truce had taken effect as displaced Lebanese and Israelis began trying to return to border communities devastated by 14 months of fighting.
That deal rested heavily on the unresolved framework of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war. A Reuters explainer on Resolution 1701 noted that the resolution called for a buffer zone free of armed groups between the Blue Line and the Litani River, except for Lebanese authorities and U.N. peacekeepers. The same unresolved question — who controls southern Lebanon — remains at the center of the latest fighting.
What comes next for Hezbollah and Lebanon
Lebanon’s government now faces a narrowing set of options. President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam have pursued direct talks with Israel as a way to secure a lasting ceasefire and the withdrawal of Israeli forces, but Hezbollah has opposed negotiations and rejected disarmament outside a national dialogue.
For Hezbollah, the immediate challenge is survival: preserving its military role, reassuring supporters and avoiding a domestic backlash that could erode its political power. For Lebanon, the stakes are broader. The country must absorb mass displacement, rebuild shattered border communities and prevent the ceasefire’s collapse from becoming another open-ended war.
As the death toll climbs and the ceasefire frays, Hezbollah’s crisis is no longer only a battlefield problem. It has become a test of whether Lebanon can regain control of its security decisions before another cycle of retaliation leaves the country with even fewer choices.
