WASHINGTON — Iran’s missile arsenal remains a live regional threat despite nearly a month of U.S. and Israeli strikes, with U.S. intelligence sources telling Reuters on Friday that only about one-third of Tehran’s missile stockpile can be confirmed destroyed. The assessment matters because another third may be damaged or buried in underground bunkers while the rest could still be available for launch, leaving Iran able to threaten bases, shipping lanes and neighboring states, March 28.

A Reuters report on the latest U.S. assessment said officials also believe Iran retains about 30% of its launch capacity even after strikes on more than 66% of its missile, drone and naval production sites and shipyards, a gap that helps explain why the battlefield picture looks far less decisive than the public rhetoric coming from Washington.

Why the Iran missile arsenal still matters

The threat is no longer abstract. A Reuters report on Iran’s strike on Prince Sultan Air Base said 12 U.S. troops were wounded in Saudi Arabia, two seriously, in the latest sign that Tehran can still hit defended regional targets after weeks of bombardment.

That continuing capability is one reason Reuters reported Gulf Arab states want any end to the war to include enforceable curbs on Iran’s missile and drone programs, not just a ceasefire. For U.S. partners, the concern is that a reduced arsenal can still disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, energy facilities and forward-deployed forces if enough launchers and missiles survive underground.

Iran missile arsenal and the bunker problem

The hardest part of any damage assessment is what cannot be seen. Buried stockpiles, mobile launchers and hardened tunnels make it easier for Iran to absorb losses without losing its ability to retaliate quickly.

That pattern did not start with the current war. In April 2024, Iran launched more than 200 drones and missiles at Israel in a direct strike from its own territory, showing it could fire at scale. In October 2024, Reuters reported that a later Iranian ballistic missile attack was larger, more complex and involved more advanced weapons, evidence that Tehran was not only preserving capability but refining how it stressed missile defenses.

Iran was also still investing in survivable launch infrastructure before the latest fighting. In January 2025, Reuters reported that Tehran unveiled an underground naval missile base and described it as one of several hidden facilities built for long-range strike systems. Those earlier reports make today’s uncertainty less surprising: Destroying exposed targets is one thing, proving what remains inside bunkers is another.

What comes next for the Iran missile arsenal

For Washington and its partners, the question is no longer whether Iran has taken serious losses. It clearly has. The more important question is whether the surviving portion of the Iran missile arsenal is still large enough, mobile enough and protected enough to shape the next phase of the war.

As long as even a reduced force can reach regional bases, shipping chokepoints and civilian infrastructure, Tehran’s missile program will remain a security problem rather than a spent one. The latest U.S. assessment therefore reads less like an end-state and more like a warning that the threat has been cut down, not cut out.