PARIS — The 30-year-old leader of the far-right National Rally, Jordan Bardella, would emerge victorious against any opponent in France’s 2027 presidential election if voting were held this week, according to a projection by the French pollster Odoxa. The latest survey for the Journal Du Dimanche, conducted face-to-face with 2,000 people from Wednesday to Friday and published Sunday, Nov. 25, makes him a comfortable leader in the first and second rounds.
Jordan Bardella’s survey points to a commanding first-round lead.
Odoxa gives Bardella 35% of intentions to vote in a first round, although this climbs well above 36% in certain cases, close to twice the level achieved by ex-prime minister Edouard Philippe, his strongest centrist antagonist, at 17%, according to La Dépêche du Midi.
The same Jordan Bardella poll also models hypothetical second rounds, in which he beats the far-left France Unbowed leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon by 74% to 26%, and leads Philippe, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, and leftist MEP Raphaël Glucksmann with between 53% and 58% of the vote — an image reflected in international reporting from Reuters. In Odoxa’s simulation of any imaginable round, Bardella comes out on top.
At the same time, Odoxa’s wider political barometer has Bardella as France’s most-liked political personality, with 39% approval, ahead of his mentor, Marine Le Pen, on 35% and Philippe on 36%, according to a write-up by Public Sénat detailing the survey. “Bardella would be elected president if it were this Sunday, whatever the adversary,” said pollster Gaël Sliman, head of Odoxa, while adding a caveat that these early voting intentions remain a snapshot rather than a foregone conclusion. The survey, conducted online using quota sampling, has a margin of sampling error of about ±2.5 percentage points.
Previous polls indicated a closer race.
Until recently, Odoxa’s polling in Jordan was significantly different. In an April 29 barometer, the institute found that either Le Pen or Bardella would win the first round with around 32% of the vote, but both would be defeated in a second-round face-off against Philippe by 54%-46%, Odoxa said in an April 29 report. In other words, the same pollster who now says Bardella will defeat Philippe used to consider the former PM the best bulwark against the far right.
Other polls this year found Bardella gaining, but not quite invincible. A recent large Ifop poll published by French political website UnHerd in May had Bardella level with Philippe at 50–50 in a hypothetical run-off, and that moderate centrist candidates were still the far right’s main barrier, as UnHerd summed up its May analysis. Since then, successive first-round surveys from the likes of Elabe and Harris have consistently put the National Rally leader north of 35% — reinforcing his position as the outright favorite for 2027.
Le Pen’s ban clears the path — but not without risks.
Bardella’s ascension is playing out under the shadow of Marine Le Pen’s legal troubles. A Paris court ruled in March that Le Pen was guilty of embezzling funds from the European Parliament and barred her from running for public office for five years, effectively excluding her from the 2027 race unless she successfully appeals. The ban, which takes immediate effect under French law, has required the National Rally to treat Bardella not only as its party president but also as its probable presidential standard-bearer.
With Le Pen handicapped, the Odoxa barometer highlights a broader change within the party and the constituency. Bardella, who assumed the National Rally presidency in 2021 and has sought to present a younger, social-media-savvy image since then, now looks the logical Élysée candidate. The polling on Jordan Bardella suggests that all those voters who once coagulated in a “republican front” against the Le Pen name may be less motivated to do so against her protégé.
At the same time, both Macron’s centrist camp and the left are fragmented. The president’s decision to call snap legislative elections in 2024 left the parliament hung and bruised his political heirs, weakening figures like Philippe and Attal just as the far right was gaining strength. Left-wing parties have failed to rally around a single candidate, and it is Mélenchon, who polls worst in head-to-head tests against Bardella (as well as having exceptionally high rejection rates), who does the worst of all.
Odoxa itself is urging caution. The firm cautions that being the “overwhelming favourite” so far out from a presidential race is no surefire predictor of success, and that campaign curveballs, economic fluctuations, or even the arrival of a new centrist challenger could still alter the landscape before 2027. For now, however, this Jordan Bardella poll serves as confirmation that the more than a year-and-a-half we have left until the vote, France’s next presidential race looks ever more like Bardella’s to lose.
