MEXICO CITY — Mexico’s steady flow of crude and fuel to Cuba is facing fresh political risk after U.S. President Donald Trump vowed “no more oil” would reach the island and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s government began weighing whether to pause shipments. The dispute is sharpening into a test of how far Washington will go to choke off Cuba’s energy supplies — and how much Mexico is willing to pay to keep the Mexico Cuba oil lifeline alive, Jan. 25, 2026.
Mexico Cuba oil shipments: a lifeline for Cuba’s grid
For Cuba, the Mexico Cuba oil stream has become a crucial backstop as power plants struggle with fuel shortages and breakdowns, worsening rolling blackouts. Mexico’s state oil company, Petróleos Mexicanos, has reported average shipments in 2025 of about 19,200 barrels a day through Sept. 30, including crude and refined products, according to figures cited by an Associated Press report on Pemex filings.
Mexico argues the policy is humanitarian and legal, framing the deliveries as support for an island where fuel scarcity quickly becomes an electricity and food problem. Critics in the United States and among Cuba’s opposition counter that the Mexico Cuba oil line props up Havana’s government and blunts pressure for political change.
Trump’s “no more oil” threat raises stakes for Mexico
Trump escalated the rhetoric this month, writing on Truth Social that “THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA — ZERO!” and urging Cuba to “make a deal,” according to a Reuters account of the post. While the statement did not spell out specific enforcement steps, it signaled that Mexico Cuba oil shipments are now squarely in Washington’s sights.
The pressure has moved beyond social media. The Trump administration is weighing options that could include a maritime interdiction strategy to stop oil imports to Cuba, Politico reported, in a development summarized by Reuters. Any such move would raise the risk of confrontation at sea and could expose shippers, insurers and financiers tied to Mexico Cuba oil cargoes to U.S. penalties.
Sheinbaum’s dilemma: solidarity vs. sanctions risk
Inside Mexico’s government, officials have discussed options ranging from reducing cargoes to a temporary halt as they assess possible U.S. retaliation, according to a Reuters report citing people familiar with the deliberations. Publicly, Sheinbaum has defended the shipments, but the political calculus is tightening as Mexico balances trade and security talks with Washington alongside fears that cutting off Cuba could worsen hardship and add to migration pressures.
Analysts say Mexico Cuba oil has also become a proxy fight over who sets the terms of regional energy flows after Venezuela’s support for Cuba fell sharply. In that sense, the question is less about barrels than leverage: whether Mexico can maintain an independent Cuba policy without triggering financial or legal blowback.
How Mexico Cuba oil became central, and why it could unravel fast
The current pipeline is relatively new. Mexico began sending meaningful volumes in 2023, a shift examined in a 2024 Center for Strategic and International Studies analysis that detailed how energy ties deepened as Cuba’s crisis worsened. Even then, shipments proved politically sensitive: in 2024, Mexico paused exports for months before resuming, according to Reuters shipping-data reporting.
Meanwhile, Cuba’s energy crunch has repeatedly spilled into the streets. During protests in Santiago de Cuba, residents cited long outages and scarce food as daily realities, as described in a 2024 Reuters report. Those episodes underscore why a sudden disruption to Mexico Cuba oil would likely be felt first in power generation and public life — and then in regional migration patterns.
For now, Mexico has not announced a decision. But the message from Washington is clear: Mexico Cuba oil shipments that once flew under the radar are becoming a high-profile pressure point, and a single policy shift could turn Cuba’s energy crisis from chronic to acute.
