WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump said Wednesday he supports Venezuela remaining in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries as his administration moves to oversee the country’s oil exports after a U.S. operation removed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro earlier this month. The stance sharpens a looming Venezuela OPEC dilemma: Washington wants more barrels online while OPEC’s quota system is built to restrain supply and support prices, Jan. 14, 2026.
Venezuela OPEC: membership, quotas and U.S. leverage
In an interview with Reuters, Trump said it would be “better for them” if Venezuela stays in the cartel, while adding he was unsure the arrangement benefits the United States. He also brushed aside questions about whether a U.S.-influenced Caracas would be expected to follow OPEC production limits, calling the issue premature.
The administration’s policy is unfolding alongside a sweeping financial framework for Venezuelan oil proceeds. A Jan. 9 White House executive order describes routing certain Venezuela-related natural-resource funds into protected U.S. Treasury accounts, arguing the move is necessary to promote stability and protect U.S. national security interests.
At the same time, U.S. officials are signaling a push to restart and expand output, largely through Western companies and traders that have stayed on the sidelines for years. A separate Reuters report said Chevron is expected to receive an expanded U.S. license that could allow higher production and exports, while other refiners and trading houses seek approvals to buy Venezuelan crude.
TIME reported the administration has already moved oil into the market, describing a first Venezuelan oil sale valued at $500 million after Maduro’s ouster, with officials saying more transactions could follow.
For global markets, the Venezuela OPEC question is less about symbolism than enforcement. If Venezuela’s production ramps up under U.S. oversight, it could collide with OPEC’s internal discipline, where members are often asked to cap output to stabilize prices. The tension would be sharpest if OPEC leaders push for cuts while Washington pressures for increases as proof a new oil policy is “working.”
How we got to the Venezuela OPEC standoff
Venezuela’s oil decline predates this month’s upheaval. Reuters reported in early 2020 that oil exports fell by about a third in 2019 as U.S. sanctions tightened, compounding years of underinvestment and mismanagement.
Washington’s approach has also swung between pressure and partial openings. In late 2022, Reuters detailed how Chevron began preparing for shipments under a time-limited U.S. license, a narrow carve-out that reopened some flows without fully lifting restrictions.
In October 2023, Reuters reported the Biden administration broadly eased Venezuela oil sanctions after an election-related agreement, while warning relief could be reversed if political conditions were not met.
And Venezuela’s leaders have long tried to use OPEC to steady prices when fiscal pressure spikes. During the 2016 oil-price slump, Reuters reported Venezuela’s oil minister argued a production “freeze” could lift prices by $10 to $15 a barrel, underscoring how central OPEC has been to Caracas’ economic strategy.
Analysts say the biggest constraint now is practical, not procedural: restoring Venezuela’s damaged oil system would take years and massive investment. A Brookings analysis warned that expectations of quick revenue and rapid production growth are unrealistic given the state of infrastructure and the complexity of much of Venezuela’s crude.
Whether the Venezuela OPEC relationship holds under U.S. influence may ultimately hinge on two tests: how fast production can actually rise, and how much friction OPEC members are willing to tolerate if Washington’s output goals clash with the cartel’s price-management playbook.
