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Chinese Yuan Rebounds as PBOC Delivers Strongest Fix in 34 Months and China Sets 4.5%-5% Growth Target

SHANGHAI — The Chinese yuan rebounded in early trade Thursday after the People’s Bank of China set the currency’s daily midpoint at its strongest level in 34 months and Beijing opened the annual National People’s Congress with a 2026 growth target of 4.5% to 5%. The stronger fix signaled official support for stability as policymakers lowered their growth ambition from last year’s 5% pace and tried to balance market confidence with slower, more structural expansion that same day, March 5, 2026.

Before spot trading began, the PBOC set the midpoint at 6.9007 per U.S. dollar, the strongest official fix in 34 months. The onshore yuan then rose about 0.12% to 6.8865, while the offshore unit traded near 6.8882, showing how quickly investors read the move as a signal that officials wanted a firmer currency backdrop.

The fix matters because it still anchors the trading band. According to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System’s description of the central parity mechanism, the daily rate published with PBOC authorization serves as the midpoint for the yuan’s managed range, giving even small adjustments outsized signaling power.

What the Chinese yuan rebound says about growth policy

Beijing simultaneously confirmed a government work report setting a 2026 growth target of 4.5% to 5%, a step down from last year’s 5% pace. The lower range gives policymakers more room to tackle overcapacity, weak household demand and property-related strains without tying credibility to a single, higher headline number.

The broader policy message also leaned toward restructuring rather than a large-scale stimulus push. Separate reporting on the parliamentary session and the draft plan for 2026-2030 said Beijing paired the lower target with a continued push into high-tech industries and a 4% deficit target, suggesting officials want steadier growth without abandoning industrial upgrading.

Chinese yuan context over time

The latest rebound also stands out against the policy debate that dominated late 2024. In December that year, Reuters reported that Chinese authorities were considering a weaker yuan as trade risks mounted, a reminder that Thursday’s stronger fix reflects a very different tactical choice from the one markets were discussing when tariff fears were intensifying.

Growth ambitions have shifted, too. In March 2025, Beijing kept its annual growth target at roughly 5%, a more assertive headline goal than the 4.5% to 5% range now on the table. Put together, the stronger fix and the softer growth target suggest Beijing is trying to support the Chinese yuan while giving itself more room to manage a slower, more deliberate expansion.

For markets, that mix matters because it says the central bank is not stepping away from the currency even as top leaders acknowledge a tougher macro backdrop. The immediate rally was modest, but the message was clear: Beijing wants a steadier Chinese yuan and a more flexible growth path as it starts a new five-year policy cycle.

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