NEW YORK — The gold price pushed past $5,000 a troy ounce in global trading Monday, setting a new record as investors sought shelter from geopolitical tension and market volatility. Analysts said steady central-bank buying and record ETF inflows have kept forecasts pointed higher, with some calling for $6,000 later this year, Jan. 26, 2026.
Gold price jumps to a new milestone
Spot gold touched $5,092.70 before easing back, leaving the gold price up more than 17% so far in 2026 after a 64% surge in 2025, according to Reuters reporting. The London Bullion Market Association’s annual forecast survey showed some analysts projecting prices as high as $7,150.
“The only certainty at the moment seems to be uncertainty, and that’s playing very much into gold’s hands,” independent analyst Ross Norman said.
What’s driving the gold price
Demand has been building as investors reassess geopolitical risks and the outlook for the U.S. dollar. The prospect of lower interest rates also matters because gold pays no yield; “There’s an opportunity cost to holding gold which has no yield,” said Chris Mancini, co-portfolio manager of the Gabelli Gold Fund.
Central banks have remained a key bid under the gold price. In its latest monthly update, the World Gold Council said central banks bought a net 45 metric tons in November and were up 297 metric tons year to date through the end of that month, with Poland among the largest reported buyers.
On the investment side, ETF demand has been surging. The council’s December 2025 gold ETF flows report said global physically backed gold ETFs drew a record $89 billion of inflows in 2025 and ended the year with holdings at a historic peak.
Market dynamics have been shifting quickly. The CME Group’s 2026 precious-metals outlook noted that lower yields and a weaker dollar can amplify bullion’s appeal, even as high prices often cool jewelry demand.
How today’s gold price surge fits a longer story
Gold’s latest leap follows a series of psychological milestones that have reshaped how investors view the metal. During the pandemic-era scramble for safety, Reuters reported gold first broke $2,000 an ounce in 2020. In early 2024, momentum around expected U.S. rate cuts helped push bullion to a then-record near $2,142, according to a March 2024 Reuters report.
Meanwhile, central banks’ role in the market has been strengthening for years. The World Gold Council’s 2024 central bank survey said official-sector buying in 2023 totaled 1,037 tonnes, following a record 1,082 tonnes in 2022.
Where the gold price could go next
Analysts say the path higher may not be smooth. A rebound in real yields, a stronger dollar or an easing of geopolitical stress could trigger profit-taking. Still, with central banks continuing to add to reserves and ETF investors returning in size, many forecasters expect dips in the gold price to attract buyers — and keep $6,000 in play if uncertainty remains the dominant theme.
