BEIJING — China posted a record $1.189 trillion trade surplus in 2025, customs data showed, underscoring how the country’s export machine is gaining new momentum even as Washington’s tariff policy swings force businesses and governments to redraw supply-chain maps, Jan. 28, 2026.
The surge is landing at a politically charged moment: A growing number of U.S. partners are making a pragmatic pivot to China for trade, investment and financing as they try to reduce exposure to sudden tariff hikes, while Beijing uses the opening to push wider use of the yuan in cross-border commerce, according to a Reuters report on the “pivot to China” gathering pace.
Trade data spotlights the pivot to China
Full-year figures released in mid-January showed exports rose in December, with shipments and imports beating market expectations, while the overall 2025 surplus cleared $1 trillion for the first time. A separate Reuters report detailing China’s 2025 trade figures said the country’s exporters increasingly leaned on non-U.S. markets as tariffs and technology restrictions tightened.
The recalibration is visible in headline trade totals as well. Official data showed China’s goods trade value reached 45.47 trillion yuan in 2025, with exports up 6.1% to 26.99 trillion yuan and imports at a record 18.48 trillion yuan, according to China’s State Council website summary of customs data.
Chinese officials argue the broader partner mix improves resilience. Wang Jun, a vice minister at China’s customs administration, said the country’s ability to withstand risks had been “significantly enhanced,” as firms expanded sales routes across Africa, Southeast Asia and Latin America.
Allies hedge against U.S. tariff volatility, deepening the pivot to China
While many governments continue to “de-risk” from China in sensitive sectors, they are also hedging against tariff uncertainty by keeping commercial channels open. One sign: German corporate investment in China climbed to a four-year high in 2025 as firms strengthened local supply chains and tried to insulate production from trade shocks, according to Reuters reporting on German companies’ China investments.
Diplomatically, Beijing has leaned into that hedging impulse. Reuters reported that Britain’s prime minister was traveling to China for talks, and Canada’s prime minister visited earlier this month and described China as “a more predictable and reliable partner.” The messaging is consistent: If tariffs can rise overnight, companies want a second door.
Yuan usage rises in the pivot to China
Beijing’s currency push is moving in parallel with trade. SWIFT data show the yuan remains a small share of global payments, but activity has been climbing in bursts: In November 2025, the yuan ranked sixth by value with a 2.94% share, according to SWIFT’s December 2025 RMB Tracker.
That global picture masks faster change inside China’s own trade corridors. Reuters reported that more than half of China’s cross-border transactions are now settled in yuan, alongside a broader buildout of offshore liquidity and faster yuan settlement rails in major trade hubs — developments that reinforce the commercial logic of a pivot to China even for firms that are otherwise cautious about geopolitical risk.
Continuity: this pivot to China has been building for years
The current shift did not begin in 2025. A 2024 Federal Reserve analysis noted China has encouraged partners to invoice and settle more trade in renminbi, citing arrangements such as China-Brazil local-currency trade initiatives (Federal Reserve FEDS Note on renminbi internationalization).
In 2023, Reuters reported the yuan overtook the dollar as the most-used currency for cross-border transactions within China in March, reflecting official efforts to internationalize the currency (Reuters on yuan use surpassing the dollar in China’s cross-border flows). Weeks earlier, Reuters also reported China’s central bank signed an agreement to set up yuan clearing arrangements in Brazil, part of the same long-running strategy (Reuters on yuan clearing arrangements in Brazil).
What is new now is the catalyst: tariff volatility and diplomatic whiplash are accelerating business decisions that might otherwise have taken longer. The result is a trade surplus that keeps setting records — and a widening, market-driven pivot to China that Beijing is eager to lock in with trade deals, payment infrastructure and yuan liquidity.
