Africa fertilizer shortage puts planting calendars at risk
The World Bank said in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook that fertilizer prices are projected to rise 31% in 2026, led by a 60% jump in urea prices. The bank warned that affordability could fall to its worst level since 2022, squeezing farm incomes and threatening future harvests.
Urea, a nitrogen-based fertilizer widely used on staple crops, is especially exposed because its production depends heavily on natural gas. A World Bank food security update said urea prices surged nearly 46% month over month between February and March as conflict disrupted fertilizer and energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said the fertilizer market is already seeing immediate shocks, with an estimated 1.5 million to 3 million tons of fertilizer trade delayed each month. FAO Director-General Qu Dongyu warned that “planting windows cannot be rescheduled without permanent yield losses,” according to the agency’s Strait of Hormuz crisis briefing.
Food security warning grows as import costs rise
The World Food Programme said supply chain disruption, higher shipping costs and delayed fertilizer supplies could push up to 45 million more people into hunger if the Middle East crisis does not ease by midyear. Nearly two-thirds of those at risk live in Africa and Asia, WFP said in its latest hunger analysis.
The risk is especially acute for smallholder farmers, who often buy fertilizer close to planting season and have little room to absorb sudden price increases. In many African markets, a fertilizer shortage becomes a food security threat when farmers reduce applications, switch crops or delay planting, lowering yields months before consumers see the full impact in food prices.
Yara International CEO Svein Tore Holsether warned that the current disruption could become a “global auction” for fertilizer, leaving poorer countries priced out of supply. The warning, reported by The Guardian, underscores concerns that Africa could face shortages not only because fertilizer is unavailable, but because it becomes unaffordable.
Older warnings show the crisis did not start this year
The latest Africa fertilizer shortage follows years of warnings over the continent’s exposure to global input shocks. During the Russia-Ukraine food and fertilizer crisis, an AGRA policy brief from 2022 said fertilizer prices were expected to rise sharply and that procurement difficulties had already reduced fertilizer purchases across the continent.
That same year, the African Development Bank approved a $1.5 billion emergency food production facility to help 20 million farmers access certified seeds and fertilizer. The bank said the program was designed to help African farmers produce 38 million additional tons of food, according to its 2022 emergency facility announcement.
In 2024, African leaders again put fertilizer security at the center of food policy. The African Union hosted the Africa Fertilizer and Soil Health Summit in Nairobi, where leaders endorsed a 10-year plan to improve soil health, strengthen fertilizer use and support local production, according to the AUDA-NEPAD action plan summary.
What governments may do next
Policy options include emergency fertilizer financing, targeted subsidies, pooled procurement, faster port clearance, support for local blending plants and investments in soil health. Analysts say governments will need to act quickly because fertilizer purchases are tied to planting calendars, not budget cycles.
For farmers, the immediate question is whether fertilizer will be available and affordable in time for the next planting season. For governments, the larger challenge is preventing a fertilizer price shock from becoming a broader food inflation and hunger crisis.
