LONDON — Brent crude slipped Wednesday in the final sessions of 2025, leaving the global benchmark on track for a third straight year of annual losses as swelling supply and slower demand growth overpowered geopolitical risk, Dec. 31, 2025. Analysts say a wave of barrels from OPEC+ and resilient non-OPEC production kept the market in surplus even as conflicts and sanctions periodically lifted prices.
Brent crude futures were down 20 cents at $61.13 a barrel by 9 a.m. GMT and were headed for an 18% drop for the year, Reuters reported. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was at $57.75 and was headed for a 19% annual decline.
Brent crude slump: supply keeps outrunning demand
OPEC+ spent much of 2025 clawing back market share, raising output targets by about 2.9 million barrels per day since April and agreeing to pause further increases in January through March 2026 amid mounting glut fears. The move, reported by Reuters in November, included an increase of 137,000 barrels per day for December and underscored growing discomfort with prices stuck in the low $60s.
But OPEC+ is only part of the story. The International Energy Agency’s December Oil Market Report forecast global oil demand would rise about 830,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 860,000 bpd in 2026 — gains that look modest against supply growth. The IEA also flagged global observed inventories rising to four-year highs in October, a sign that extra crude is still flowing into storage rather than being pulled immediately into consumption.
U.S. supply remains a stubborn pressure point. The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts U.S. crude oil production will average about 13.5 million barrels per day in 2026, roughly 100,000 bpd less than in 2025, after four years of rising output driven largely by the Permian Basin.
Why the record losing streak matters
A third consecutive annual decline would be a milestone for Brent crude because it extends a downtrend that began after post-pandemic and war-driven spikes faded. In 2023, crude futures ended the year more than 10% lower as traders weighed weakening demand and producer policy, according to Reuters. Prices fell again in 2024, when Reuters reported oil posted a second straight annual loss despite periodic supply scares and bursts of optimism about growth.
Looking further back, the current market-share tug-of-war echoes earlier cycles. In 2014, Saudi Arabia blocked calls for an OPEC production cut as prices slid, Reuters reported, helping deepen a slump as surging non-OPEC supply reshaped the market. And in 2020, oil suffered an unprecedented crash as COVID-19 crushed demand and a price war overwhelmed storage, Reuters wrote at the time.
Brent crude outlook: what happens next
Traders now are watching whether the glut deepens in early 2026, when seasonal demand typically softens and producers decide how much supply to defend or surrender. Some forecasters see Brent crude testing the mid-$50s before any sustained recovery, betting that demand remains tepid and that further output restraint will only come if prices fall enough to force it.
Still, the market is not free of upside risk. Any abrupt disruption to exports — or a sharper-than-expected rebound in consumption — could tighten balances quickly. But as 2025 closes, the dominant theme remains oversupply, and Brent crude is entering 2026 with the burden of proving that the world still needs every marginal barrel.
