ROME — Fertilizer delays tied to the Strait of Hormuz are threatening harvests in import-dependent countries across South Asia, Africa and other vulnerable regions, U.N. food officials and agriculture economists warned in a Food and Agriculture Organization assessment, April 26, 2026.
The danger is not only that ships are late. It is that late fertilizer can force farmers to cut applications, switch crops or plant with higher fuel and financing costs, decisions that may show up months later as lower yields and higher food prices.
Strait of Hormuz food crisis spreads through fertilizer markets
The Strait of Hormuz has long been viewed mainly as an oil chokepoint, but the current disruption is exposing its role in the fertilizer chain. An International Food Policy Research Institute analysis said up to 30 percent of global fertilizer trade passed through the strait in 2024, along with major flows of liquefied natural gas, a key feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer.
Urea, ammonia, sulfur and natural gas are all part of the same food-security equation. Urea is widely used to grow cereals, ammonia is a building block for nitrogen fertilizers, sulfur is needed to process phosphate fertilizers, and natural gas helps make nitrogen fertilizer. When any of those inputs are delayed or repriced, the cost of planting wheat, rice, maize and other staples rises quickly.
U.N. Trade and Development said in its fertilizer and trade review that about one-third of global seaborne fertilizer volumes pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The agency also warned that many developing countries have limited room to absorb higher costs because they face tight budgets, external imbalances and constrained access to finance.
Fertilizer prices are already moving faster than food prices
The World Bank said urea prices surged by nearly 46 percent between February and March 2026 amid the Middle East conflict, according to its latest food security update. That spike matters because farmers usually must buy fertilizer before harvest income arrives. If prices rise too fast, some producers apply less, plant fewer acres or move into lower-input crops.
“The clock is ticking,” FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero said, warning that crop calendars put poorer countries at the greatest risk when fertilizer and energy inputs become scarce or expensive. FAO officials said the crisis could remain manageable if shipping normalizes quickly, but a longer disruption would affect planting decisions for 2026 and could lift food inflation into 2027.
The pressure is especially dangerous in places where fertilizer use is already low. In those regions, even small cuts can reduce yields sharply because crops are already grown near the edge of nutrient deficiency. That makes the shock different from a normal price increase: Farmers may not simply pay more; they may harvest less.
Vulnerable nations have the least room to wait
South Asia is exposed because India, Pakistan and Bangladesh rely on imported fertilizer or imported gas used in domestic fertilizer production. Africa is exposed because many countries remain dependent on imported non-phosphate fertilizers, while public subsidy programs and emergency procurement are harder to finance when debt and food-aid needs are already high.
Countries such as Sudan, Somalia and Tanzania face added risk because fertilizer access is tied to broader food insecurity, conflict, weak purchasing power or import dependence. In those markets, a fertilizer delay can become a food crisis before global commodity prices fully reflect the shortage.
Major exporters are not immune. Brazil, Australia and India can still face higher costs or localized shortages, and their planting decisions can spill into global grain and oilseed markets. If farmers shift away from fertilizer-intensive crops such as wheat, rice or maize, the result may be less supply of the staples most important to low-income consumers.
Older warnings show the crisis has been building
The current shock did not appear in isolation. A May 2022 World Bank analysis warned that fertilizer prices had risen nearly 30 percent since the start of that year after an 80 percent surge in 2021, driven by energy costs, sanctions, supply disruptions and export restrictions.
An April 2022 IFPRI warning made a similar point: High fertilizer prices and availability concerns could cast a shadow over future harvests and keep food prices elevated, especially in low- and middle-income countries.
Later that year, a December 2022 IMF analysis estimated that a 1 percent increase in fertilizer prices raises food commodity prices by 0.45 percent. That older research helps explain why today’s fertilizer shock is being treated as a food-security warning rather than a narrow farm-input problem.
Limited bypass routes make policy decisions urgent
The energy side of the disruption is also feeding the farm-input shock. The International Energy Agency’s overview of the Strait of Hormuz says nearly 20 million barrels per day of oil were exported through the strait in 2025, while alternative export capacity is limited mainly to routes through Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Higher fuel costs raise the price of moving fertilizer, pumping irrigation water and transporting crops to market.
FAO has urged governments to avoid export restrictions on energy and fertilizers, expand emergency financing for countries that need inputs immediately, and ensure farmers can access credit before planting windows close. Those steps could help prevent a shipping disruption from turning into a broader food-price shock.
The Strait of Hormuz food crisis remains a risk, not a certainty. But the window for avoiding damage is narrowing. If fertilizer cargoes resume quickly, many farmers can still adjust. If delays persist, the most vulnerable nations may face the consequences first: weaker harvests, higher staple prices and another year in which food insecurity spreads through the cost of growing food before it appears on the grocery shelf.
