Trump approval rating falls as inflation and Iran war dominate
The NBC News Decision Desk poll found 63% of adults disapprove of Trump’s performance, including half who strongly disapprove. His numbers were even weaker on the issues most closely tied to daily costs and foreign policy: 32% approved of his handling of inflation and the cost of living, while 33% approved of his handling of the conflict with Iran.
The timing is difficult for the White House. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.9% in March and 3.3% over the past 12 months, with energy up 10.9% for the month and gasoline up 21.2%. That has made it harder for Republicans to argue that the administration has delivered on Trump’s central 2024 promise to bring prices down.
A separate Quinnipiac University national poll released April 15 found 65% of registered voters blame Trump either a lot or some for the recent rise in gasoline prices. The same survey put his overall job approval at 38%, his economy approval at 38% and his Iran approval at 36%, with 58% disapproving of his handling of the situation with Iran. “For many, pain at the pump rhymes with Trump,” Quinnipiac polling analyst Tim Malloy said.
Older polls showed the warning signs building
The new low did not emerge in isolation. A Gallup survey in November had already placed Trump at 36% approval, citing affordability concerns, weaker support among Republicans and deep erosion among independents. A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll in February found 60% disapproved of Trump’s job performance and only 32% approved of his handling of inflation.
The Iran issue also showed early signs of danger. A Reuters/Ipsos poll in early March found 27% of adults approved of U.S. strikes on Iran, while 43% disapproved and 45% said they would be less likely to support the campaign if gas or oil prices increased in the United States.
GOP midterm hopes face an inflation-war squeeze
The political risk for Republicans is that inflation and Iran are no longer separate problems. Higher fuel prices turn the war into a household-budget issue, while the conflict undercuts Trump’s past pitch that he would lower costs and avoid new wars. That combination gives Democrats a clearer midterm argument in competitive House and Senate races, even if voters remain skeptical of both parties.
The Associated Press reported earlier this month that Republican strategists were already bracing for political backlash as Trump presided over surging energy costs and an escalating overseas conflict. The challenge is especially acute because midterms often become referendums on the sitting president, and Trump’s approval is now sitting near or below the level that has historically endangered a president’s party.
Trump still has a strong partisan floor. Quinnipiac found 88% of Republicans approve of his job performance, and GOP voters remain far more supportive of his Iran policy than Democrats or independents. But the broader electorate is moving in the opposite direction, and independents are the voters most likely to decide the competitive districts that will determine control of Congress.
For now, the 37% figure is more than a bad headline. It is a warning that the same issues Trump used to regain the White House — affordability, energy and restraint abroad — are becoming liabilities for Republicans six months before voters decide whether to keep them in power.
